USD/JPY Price Analysis: Trapped around 145.30-90, as BoJ’s intervention looms

• USD/JPY marches steadily to re-test the 145.90 YTD high amidst Japanese authorities’ expressions about the FX markets.
• Short term, the USD/JPY is range-boun, though intervention fears keep long traders cautious.
• If the USD/JPY tumbles below 145.30, a fall toward 145.00 is on the cards.

The USD/JPY is trading at around the line on the sand imposed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention in the FX markets on September 22, when the central bank decided to propel the Japanese yen, putting a lid on the USD/JPY rise. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 145.81, below its opening price by 0.04%.

USD/JPY Price Forecast

From a daily chart perspective, the USD/JPY advances steadily, without the strength that spurred the uptrend when the major dipped towards 130.00 before challenging the 145.00 mark. Due to last month’s FX central bank intervention, buyers remain cautious around the 145.00-146.00 area, refraining from opening fresh longs against the backdrop of the Boj’s stepping into the markets.

The USD/JPY, one-hour time frame, illustrates the pair is range-bound, within the 145.30-90 area, shy of the YTD high of 145.99, which, once touched, sparked the BoJ’s intervention. So a break above 146.00 could open the door for further gains. The first resistance would be the R2 and R3 daily pivot points, each at 146.20 and 146.50, respectively, ahead of the 147.00 mark.

Nevertheless, given the recent BoJ’s intervention around the 146.00 area, the path of least resistance is downwards. Hence, the USD/JPY first support would be the 20-EMA at 145.70, followed by the 50-EMA at 145.62, which, once cleared, could pave the way toward the weekly low of 145.23.

USD/JPY Key Technical Levels