USD/CAD advances towards 1.3800 as market mood heats further, oil extends recovery

• USD/CAD is marching towards 1.3800 as the market mood has soured amid soaring yields.
• Fed’s Beige Book has indicated labor demand moderation due to economic slowdown anticipation.
• Oil prices have recovered firmly despite an addition in global oil supply from US SPR.

The USD/CAD pair has picked bids around 1.3760 and is aiming to recapture the critical hurdle of 1.3800. The greenback bulls have been underpinned as the market mood has soured further. S&P500 futures have extended their losses after a weak Wednesday session.

The US dollar index (DXY) has climbed to Wednesday’s high at around 113.10 in the early trade and is expected to surpass the same with less effort. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped to 4.15% amid soaring bets for a bigger rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Fresh demand was witnessed in the mighty DXY after the Fed’s Beige Book cited risks of elevating inflation and weak domestic demand due to higher interest rates, supply chain disruption, and mounting price pressures. Sales for automobiles have turned sluggish amid higher vehicle prices and higher interest obligations upon the same.

Adding to that, economic activities have remained flat in major districts and labor demand has moderated as firms have ditched the recruitment process in anticipation of an economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans cited that the US central bank “Needs to make sure inflation pressures don't broaden further,” He believes that the Fed should have started tightening the monetary policy six months earlier than their first rate hike in March 2022 post-pandemic.

This week, Canada’s inflation data remained in the spotlight. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) escalated to 6.9% against projections of 6.8%. While the core CPI soared to 6.0% from the expectations of 5.6%.

In response to the higher-than-projected inflation rate, Analysts at CIBC believe the Bank of Canada (BOC) will need to hike rates by 75 basis points (bps) next week, against the 50 bps previously anticipated.

On the oil front, oil prices have rebounded firmly to near $85.00 despite the announcement of oil release by US President Joe Biden. A release of 15 million barrels of oil to balance the demand-supply mechanism from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may conclude the rally sooner.