GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Seesaws around 168.60, as BoJ’s intervention, lurks

• GBP/JPY clings to gains as the Asian session begins, following Thursday’s 200 pip volatile session, on speculation of BoJ’s FX intervention.
• Short term, the GBP/JPY might test 170.00 but needs to clear 169.73; otherwise, a fall to the weekly lows below 167 is on the cards.

The GBP/JPY seesawed within a large range on Thursday on what looks like an intervention in the FX markets by Japanese authorities after hitting a daily low/high of 167.42-169.73, respectively, for a total of 220 pips difference between Thursday’s price extremes. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY is trading at 168.60, down by a minimal 0.02%, as the Asian Pacific session begins.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast

The daily chart delineates the GBP/JPY remains upward biased. However, Thursday’s candlestick engulfed the price action of Tuesday and Wednesday’s sessions, though with a smaller-than-expected body, meaning that buying and selling pressure is at equilibrium. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.85 is almost flat, despite lying a bullish territory, while the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (ËMA) at 163.27 crossed above the 50-day EMA, eyeing the 100-day EMA lying at 163.54, which, once surpassed, could spark another leg-up in the pair. Key resistance levels lie at 169.00, followed by October 20 cycle high at 169.73, closely followed by 170.00.

In the near term, the GBP/JPY one-hour time frame depicts the pair consolidating. The hourly EMAs, namely the 20, 50, and 100, are almost flat below the current exchange rate, with the 200-EMA lying at 165.73. The RSI in the hourly chart is at 53.86, in bullish territory, validating the neutral to upward bias, though a break above Thursday’s high at 169.73 is needed to pave the way for further gains and will expose key resistance levels like the 170.00 figure, and 171.00.

On the flip side, the GBP/JPY needs to break below 168.43 to retest the weekly low at 166.95, though it would face some hurdles on the way south. The first support would be the S1 daily pivot at 167.45, followed by the 167.00 figure, ahead of 166.95.

GBP/JPY Key Technical Levels