Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD battle lines well-defined, with the Fed week ahead – Confluence Detector

• Gold price is wavering in a tight range amid USD weakness, awaits US data, Fed.
• Hopes for a dovish Fed pivot remain intact after the ECB fails to impress.
•  XAU/USD looks to extend the range trade above the $1,650 level.

Gold price is keeping its range play intact between the $1,650 and $1,680 price zone heading into the weekly close, as investors continue assessing the recent series of downbeat US economic releases even though the advance Q3 GDP print bettered estimates on Thursday. Expectations of the Fed likely shifting its pivot towards a dovish stance in the months ahead continue weighing on the US dollar and the Treasury yields, especially after the ECB offered a gloomy outlook of the euro area economy. The downside in the yellow metal, therefore, remains cushioned. But bulls stay cautious over the end-of-the-week volatility while the month-end also nears. Positions readjustments ahead of the November 2 Fed rate hike decision could also have a significant impact on the dollar trades and, hence, on the gold price action.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: 21DMA appears a tough nut to crack for XAU/USD bulls, focus on weekly close

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is gyrating below the critical resistance at $1,669, which is the convergence of the previous week’s high and Bollinger Band one-day Middle.

Up next, bulls will challenge $1,671, where the previous day’s high coincides with the pivot point one-day R1. A firm break above the latter will trigger a fresh upswing towards $1,677, the confluence of the previous year’s low, pivot point one-week R1 and pivot point one-day R2.

The next point of resistance is placed at the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day at $1,681.

Alternatively, XAU/USD bears are flirting with the SMA100 four-hour support at $1,663, a breach of the latter will expose a powerful cap at $1,661, which is the intersection of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-month.  

The SMA5 one-day at $1,657 could then come to the rescue of buyers, putting the previous day’s low at $1,655 to test again. A fresh drop below that level will call for a test of strong cushion at $1,650. At that level, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, SMA200 one-hour and SMA10 one-day merge.

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.