GBP/USD sees a pullback to near 1.1500 as positive tone recovers, Fed/BOE policy in focus

• GBP/USD is expecting a pullback move after a perpendicular drop as the risk profile is turning positive.
• The BOE could announce the highest rate hike by 75 bps in the current rate hike cycle.
• The Fed may accelerate interest rates by 75 bps and the target range of rates may top around 5%.

The GBP/USD pair witnessed fresh demand around 1.1460 in the early Tokyo session. A pullback move in the cable looks favored as the risk-on impulse is getting traction. S&P500 futures have attempted a recovery after a bearish Monday while the 10-year US Treasury yields have also dropped to 4.05%.

The US dollar index (DXY) witnessed a vertical rise to near 111.50 after overstepping the critical hurdle of 111.00 as uncertainty ahead of monetary policies by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) raised the credibility of safe-haven assets.

Analysts at Rabobank have come forward with a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike projection.  Earlier, analysts were expecting a full percent rate hike after the disaster of the mini-budget under the leadership of former UK PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

However, novel leadership formation led by the appointment of Rishi Sunak as UK PM and Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor has infused optimism. They explain that it would still be the largest rate hike of this cycle. On policy guidance, analysts expect rates to peak at 4.75%.

The pound bulls could remain under pressure as UK’s business confidence has dropped to pandemic levels. The UK Consumer Confidence fell 1 point to 15% in the October survey, as reported by Bloomberg. However, the majority of employers are expecting that staff will increase for the first time in five months. 

On the US front, the Fed is set to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 bps to 3.75- 4.00% on Wednesday, in a note from analysts at Rabobank. They further added that “We expect a 50 bps hike in December, followed by two hikes of 25 bps in February and March, which would take the top of the target range to 5.00%.