Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds steady above $1,650 ahead of the key Fed decision

• Gold edges higher for the second straight day amid modest USD weakness.
• Hopes for a less hawkish Fed continue to exert pressure on the greenback.
• The upbeat US ADP report fails to impress the USD bulls or provide impetus.
• The market focus remains on the crucial FOMC monetary policy decision.

Gold gains some positive traction for the second successive day on Wednesday and maintains its bid tone through the early North American session. The XAU/USD is currently placed near the top end of its daily range, just above the $1,655 level, as traders keenly await the highly-anticipated FOMC monetary policy decision.

In the meantime, expectations for a less hawkish Fed prompt fresh US dollar selling, which, in turn, is seen offering some support to the dollar-denominated gold. Market participants expect that the US central bank might slow the pace of its rate-hiking cycle amid the deteriorating outlook for the US economy. Even the upbeat ADP report, showing that private-sector employers added 239K jobs in October against 193K expected, fails to boot the USD.

Despite the supporting factor, the XAU/USD lacks bullish conviction ahead of the crucial central bank event risk. The Fed will announce its policy decision later during the US session and is expected to deliver another supersized 75 bps rate hike for the fourth time in as many meetings. The market focus, however, will remain glued to the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference.

Investors will look for fresh clues about the pace of future policy tightening by the Fed, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. This, in turn, will help determine the next leg of a directional move for the non-yielding gold. The current market pricing indicates over a 50% chance of a 50 bps Fed rate hike move in December. A more hawkish signal will set the stage for the resumption of the recent bearish trend for the XAU/USD.

Technical levels to watch