Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD oscillates below $1,640 as market mood turns quiet, US NFP eyed

• Gold price has remained sideways below $1,640.00 amid quiet risk impulse.
• Investors are shifting their focus toward US employment data after a hawkish Fed policy.
• The US NFP is seen lower at 200k vs. the prior release of 263k.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying back-and-forth moves in a mild range below $1,640.00 in the Tokyo session. Volatility has been squeezed after a wild gyration post the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The market mood seems quiet as S&P500 futures have displayed a marginal recovery after bloodshed on Wednesday. The US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a rangebound profile below 112.00. The returns on 10-year US government bonds are stabilized at 4.12%.

Fed-infused volatility will take time to shrug off from the market as the fourth consecutive 75 basis points (bps) rate hike by Fed chair Jerome Powell came along with hawkish guidance. Now, investors are shifting their focus toward the US employment data, which is due on Friday.

On Wednesday, the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that the US economy has added 239k fresh jobs in the labor market. And, the consensus for US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) indicates that the labor market has been filled with 200k jobs vs. the prior release of 263k. A wide divergence in ADP and NFP data could bring volatility in gold prices.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, the gold prices are hovering around weekly lows placed from Tuesday’s low at $1,630.77. The precious metal is auctioning below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates more weakness ahead.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals a continuation of downside momentum.

Gold hourly chart