More pressure on the Yuan if China open ups symmetrically – TDS

Is China about to open up? If China opens up symmetrically it would once again put pressure on the services balance of China's current account, leading to more and not less pressure on the Yuan, according to economists at TD Securities.

China’s opening is not going to be a panacea for the global economy and markets

“In terms of markets impact if China opens up symmetrically i.e. allows more Chinese to travel outside of China and not just allows more inward traffic, it would once again put pressure on the services balance of China's current account, leading to more and not less pressure on the CNY. As such, we maintain our view of CNY underperformance both vs. USD and on a trade-weighted basis. Conversely, it would be positive news for the likes of THB, and other tourism related currencies in the region including SGD.” 

“For the rest of the world, clearly a full opening up and dismantling of zero-Covid, would bode well, especially if Chinese growth reaches 6-6.5% as noted above, but this is not our base case. Moreover, even if growth does ramp up, China's domestically-focussed stimulus, ongoing domestic structural constraints, and weaker trade means that China opening is not going to be a panacea for the global economy and markets.”