The slide in USD can be seen to be over now – Commerzbank

The USD Index (DXY) has been trading sideways since the start of the week. In the opinion of economists at Commerzbank, the slide in USD is likely to have come to an end.

Levels around 1.04 are the new comfort level in EURUSD

“The slide in USD can be seen to be over now. It is possible that some people haven’t noticed that it is over and are only holding USD shorts because they think that other market participants were still selling the greenback (one should never underestimate stupidity!) but it is unlikely.”

“Levels around 1.04 are the new comfort level in EURUSD. It seems to me that the scenario of an inflation which central banks cannot get under control seems to have been priced out as a result.”

“Further USD weakness might follow at a later stage once inflation starts turning globally and a more or less rapid return to inflation targets (or at least close to these levels) seems more likely.”

“In the meantime, it has become a generally accepted fact that both the Fed and the ECB are likely to reduce the speed of its key rate hikes. If that were to happen this will take place on both sides of the Atlantic and thus almost in synchronicity, and as a result, the slowing should be more or less neutral for EURUSD.”