Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD advances to $1740 on upbeat US data, ahead of FOMC minutes

• October’s upbeat data from the United States bolstered the US Dollar as Gold edges lower.
• US Durable Good Orders came better than expected amidst a gloomy economic outlook.
• The labor market in the US continued to ease, as shown by Initial Jobless Claims.
• Short term, XAU/USD is neutral biased but would turn upwards if it reclaims $1750.

Gold Price registers minuscule gains of 0.19% following the release of economic data from the United States (US), on the busiest day of the current week calendar, which failed to underpin the US Dollar (USD), ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting minutes at around 18:00 GMT. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1741 after hitting a daily high of $1745.77.

Durable Good Orders rose sharply, underpinning the US Dollar

Sentiment is mixed as Wall Street fluctuates between gainers and losers. Data reported by the US Department of Commerce (DoC) revealed that Durable Good Orders in October jumped by 1%  compared to September’s 0.3%, showing consumers’ resilience amidst a time of high inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and a deteriorated economic outlook. Delving into the report, core Durable Orders, which exclude transportation and aircraft, rose 0.5% MoM for the same period, well above September’s -0.9% contraction, and expectations of coming unchanged.

The US labor market begins to ease

At the same time, the US Department of Labor (DoL) revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 19 increased to 240K above estimates of 225K, amidst a period of high-tech companies laying off workers. Meanwhile, continuing claims climbed by 48K to 1.55 million in the week ended November 12, the highest since March, flashing signs that the labor market is easing.

The XAU/USD seesawed on data, hitting a daily low of $1725.23 before rallying towards the daily high at $1747.69 and stabilizing around current spot prices. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the US Dollar value vs. six currencies, extended its losses, down by 0.51%, at 106.600.

Federal Reserve officials committed to tame inflation, as traders eye FOMC minutes

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials commented that the central bank’s primary goal is to bring inflation to 2%, though acknowledging that borrowing costs should moderate. On Tuesday, the Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, “Maintaining price stability is a critical objective that will be accomplished using all available means.” On Monday, Mester commented that she Is open to moderate rate hikes, though she emphasized that a pause is off the table. She echoed some of the comments made by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s saying that the Federal Funds rate (FFR) needs to peak at around 5%.

Later in the day, the US economic calendar will reveal the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the November meeting, which analysts will scrutinize. They are searching for clues about how high policymakers expect rates to go, how many participants support that view, and how many support a slowdown in rate increases.

Gold Price Analysis (XAU/USD): Technical outlook

After dropping to a new two-week low of around $1725.23, testing the August 22 swing low of $1727.90, XAU/USD is staging a comeback, as the spot price is back above $1740. Traders should be aware that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted flat, though as it stays in bullish territory, a resumption of the uptrend Is on the cards.

If XAU/USD buyers reclaim $1750, the Gold Price might return to trade within the $1750-$1760 area before launching an assault to $1800. On the flip side, failure to do it will expose XAU/USD’s to a fall toward the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1711.24, followed by a test of the $1700 figure.