Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD carves out a bullish scenario into key resistance

• Gold has broken the bullish trendline but is now coming up to test the bearish commitments.
• Bulls eye a move beyond $1,790 on a strong correction that threatens a continuation to the upside.

Gold price is higher on the day having climbed from a low of $1,768.82 and reaching a high of $1,789.05 so far as the US Dollar tails off in the mid-afternoon session in the US.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is 1% higher at $1,789 as the greenback slides while China announces some easing in its zero-COVID strategy. People with Covid can now isolate at home rather than in state facilities if they have mild or no symptoms. They also no longer need to show tests for most venues and can travel more giving risk sentiment a lift mid-week.

Nevertheless, US equities have struggled for direction as investors digest the recent data of late within the US Federal Reserve officials in the blackout ahead of next week’s meeting.  At the start of this week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, indicating that the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, remained resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Additionally, last Friday's surprisingly strong Nonfarm Payrolls data in November has raised optimism that a recession could be avoided in 2023. 

Meanwhile, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the US central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December," and futures contracts tied to the Fed policy rate still imply a 70% chance that central bankers will slow the pace of rate hikes when they meet Dec. 13-14.

The Fed's chair Powell's comments have prompted the market to price in a lower peak interest rate, which Fed funds futures showed on Wednesday was 4.933%, down from a recent high of 5.1%. Markets are now rethinking this to a 5%-5.25% range by May, as per the futures contract prices and the CME Fed watch tool.

Gold technical analysis

Gold has broken the bullish trendline but is now coming up to test the bearish commitments near $1,790 on a strong correction that threatens a continuation to the upside.