EUR/GBP oscillates below 0.8600 ahead of UK job data, ECB/BOE policy key trigger ahead

• EUR/GBP is auctioning below 0.8600 as investors await UK Employment data.
• Increment in households’ earnings data could be a double-edged sword for the UK economy.
• The ECB is expected to hike its interest rates by 50 bps to 2.50%.

The EUR/GBP pair is displaying back-and-forth moves marginally below the crucial hurdle of 0.8600 in the early European session. The cross is displaying a sideways auction profile as investors are awaiting the release of the United Kingdom Employment data.

The asset remained topsy-turvy on Monday despite upbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The monthly GDP data (October) reported an expansion of 0.5% while the street was expecting a contraction of 0.1%. Also, Industrial and Manufacturing Production data remained better than anticipation but were contracted on an annual basis for October month.

Now, investors have shifted their focus to the UK Employment data. As per the projections, the jobless claims gamut will witness a decline of 13.3K. While the quarterly Unemployment Rate (October) is seen higher at 3.7% against the former release of 3.6%.

Apart from that, Quarterly Average Earnings data excluding Bonuses is seen higher at 5.9% vs. the former release of 5.7%. An increment in households’ earnings could be a double-edged sword. No doubt, higher earnings will delight households in offsetting inflation adjusted-payouts but will also increase retail demand, which will escalate inflation further.

This week, the interest rate policy by the Bank of England (BOE) will hog the limelight. Analysts from Danske Bank are expecting a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike announcement. 

On the Eurozone front, investors are awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is scheduled for Thursday. Analysts at Rabobank think that the ECB is likely to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points in December but note that they are not fully discounting the possibility of a 75 bps hike. They have forecasted a terminal rate of 3%.