Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rallies to fresh multi-month top on softer US CPI report

• Gold price regains strong positive traction on Tuesday and spikes to a fresh multi-month high.
• The intraday move-up picks up pace following the release of softer consumer inflation figures.
• Bets for less aggressive Federal Reserve drag US Treasury bond yields lower, along with US Dollar.
• The risk-on impulse could cap gains for the safe-haven Gold price ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Gold price catches fresh bids during the early North American session on Tuesday and jumps to a fresh five-month top following the release of the consumer inflation figures from the United States (US). The XAU/USD is currently placed around the $1,810 area and making a fresh attempt to build on its momentum beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average.

Consumer inflation figures from United States come in softer than expected

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a modest 0.1% in November. The reading is well below the 0.3% expected and marks a notable slowdown from the 0.4% increase recorded in the previous month. Furthermore, the yearly rate decelerate from 7.7% in October to 7.1% during the reported month, again falling short of consensus estimates. Furthermore, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, eased to 0.2% in November and fell to 6% on yearly basis from 6.3% in October.

Falling US Treasury bond yields weigh on US Dollar and benefit Gold price

The data reaffirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy tightening and is evident from a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar to its lowest level since late June and turns out to be a key factor providing a strong lift to the Dollar-denominated Gold price. Bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path, which will determine the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Risk-on mood could cap gains for safe-haven Gold price

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a strong rally in the US equity futures - further contributes to capping the upside for the safe-haven Gold price. The global risk sentiment remains well supported by the latest optimism over the easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions in China. Heading into the key central bank event risk, this might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets and keep a lid on the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, sustained strength beyond the $1,810-$1,812 horizontal resistance will mark a fresh bullish breakout and add credence to the positive outlook. Gold price might then accelerate the momentum towards the $1,830 intermediate hurdle en route to the next major barrier near the $1,745-$1,750 region.

On the flip side, the $1,800 round figure now seems to act as immediate support ahead of the $1,795-$1,95 area (200 DMA). Any subsequent slide might continue to attract some buyers at lower levels and remain cushioned near the $1,780-$1,777 support zone. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken will set the stage for some meaningful downside for Gold price.

Key levels to watch