AUD/USD extends its recovery to near 0.6740 as risk off impulse eases, US PMI in focus

• AUS/USD has advanced to near 0.6735 after recovery as the risk-on profile is regaining traction.
• What dampened the market mood post-Fed Powell’s speech was the lack of confidence that inflation will soft further.
• A decline in Australian one-year consumer inflation expectations might delight the RBA.

The AUD/USD pair has stretched its recovery to near 0.6735 in the Asian session as the risk-off impulse has eased. The Aussie asset rebounded after printing a fresh six-day low at 0.6680. On Thursday, the strength in the US Dollar snapped a five-day rally as investors turned extremely cautious on hawkish guidance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction to near 104.30 after a decent rally to near 104.80. Strength in the USD Index is fading as investors are shrugging off uncertainty derived from recession fears after the Fed hiked its terminal rate projection. S&P500 futures have attempted a recovery in the Asian session after bloodshed on Thursday, portraying signs of revival in the risk appetite theme. The 10-year US Treasury yields have rebounded above 3.48%.

The battle against mounting inflation is in progress and it will take ample time to achieve price stability by the Fed. What dampened the market mood after Fed’s monetary policy was the absence of confidence in Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech that inflation will continue to cool down further. Also, rising Average Hourly Earnings are creating troubles for Fed policymakers.

Higher earnings in the palm of households will result in solid retail demand, which could propel price growth in durable goods again. Going forward, investors will focus on preliminary S&P PMI numbers. As per the consensus, the Manufacturing PMI is seen unchanged at 47.7 while Service PMI would improve to 46.8 vs. the former release of 46.2.

On the Aussie front, a decline in 12-month consumer inflation expectations is going to delight the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has been tightening monetary policy to bring a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The 12-month Australian consumer inflation expectations dropped to 5.2% against the consensus of 5.7% and the former release of 6.0%.