GBP/USD Price Analysis: 200-SMA probes bears at monthly low

• GBP/USD seesaws near the key moving average after two-day losing streak that refreshed monthly low.
• Clear break of one-month-old support, bearish MACD signals favor sellers.
• Weekly resistance line, previous support from late November keeps buyers off.

GBP/USD bears take a breather around the monthly low after two-day downtrend, marking rounds to 1.2030 during Friday’s Asian session, as the 200-SMA challenges the quote’s immediate downside.

Even so, the Cable pair’s sustained trading below the one-month-old ascending trend line, broken on Wednesday, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful.

That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the GBP/USD’s November-December upside, near 1.1950, acts as nearby support for the pair sellers to watch should it manage to provide a clear break of the 200-SMA clutch around 1.2040.

Following that, the late November swing low of 1.1900 could act as an extra filter to the south before directing bears towards the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements, respectively around 1.1800 and 1.1645.

It’s worth noting, however, that the GBP/USD pair’s sustained downside past 1.1645 defies the hopes of recovery and can push the prices towards November 09 low surrounding 1.1330.

Alternatively, a one-week-old downward-sloping resistance line, around 1.2120 by the press tie, guards the GBP/USD recovery before the support-turned-resistance line from late November, close to 1.2180 at the latest.

In a case where GBP/USD remains firmer past 1.2180, multiple hurdles around 1.2200 and 1.2340-40 could challenge the bulls ahead of highlighting the monthly peak of 1.2446.

To sum up, GBP/USD stays on the bear's radar even if the 200-SMA challenges the nearby downside.

GBP/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected