EUR/GBP walks on tight rope above 0.8800 as Covid woes join pullback in yields

• EUR/GBP struggles to extend pullback from 11-week high.
• US Treasury yields retreat from three-week top, EU bond coupons grind near 11-year high but Gilts stay depressed.
• Geopolitical fears from Russia join China Covid woes but lack of market participation, absence of major data bore momentum traders.

EUR/GBP remains sidelined around 0.8825, after reversing from a nearly two-month high the previous day, as traders seek more clues amid the market’s indecision headline into Thursday’s London open.

Even so, the cross-currency pair remains pressured as the geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia and fears of economic slowdown propel the Eurozone Treasury bond yields while the UK’s Gilts dropped to the lost levels for seven weeks.

Russia’s rejection of peace with Ukraine unless it accepts the treaty allowing additional territories joins an escalated war in the city of Kherson to weigh on the sentiment. On the same line could be the major nations’ notification to require the Covid tests for Chinese travelers amid doubts over Beijing’s reporting of data and a hidden jump in the virus numbers.

It’s worth noting, however, the comparatively stronger hawkish bias of the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers versus the Bank of England (BOE) decision-makers challenge the EUR/GBP bears. Even so, the chatters surrounding the bloc’s recession seem to have gained more attention of late, which in turn should have recalled the bears the previous day.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.8 basis points to 3.86% by the press time, after rising the most since October 19 the previous day. That said, the Eurozone 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since July 2011 before retreating to 2.51% while the UK’s 10-year Gilt coupons dropped for the third consecutive day to refresh multi-day low.

Looking forward, the EUR/GBP is likely to witness more inaction but the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine fight and the economic slowdown fears surrounding the bloc could weigh on the prices.

Technical analysis

Despite the failure to cross the 0.8855-65 resistance zone, comprising multiple levels marked since late September, EUR/GBP remains on the bear’s radar unless breaking the 200-DMA support, close to 0.8575 at the latest.