There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year – BBH

Previewing this week's upcoming key macroeconomic events, analysts at BBH noted that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting will be very important.

There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year

"At the December meeting, the Fed downshifted to 50 bp hike.  However, Chair Powell delivered a very hawkish message at his press conference and so the minutes should help fill in the picture.  We continue to believe markets are underestimating the Fed.  WIRP suggests a 25 bp hike February 1 is fully priced in, with over 30% odds of a larger 50 bp move.  Another 25 bp hike March 22 is fully priced in, with nearly 50% odds of one last 25 bp hike in Q2 that would take the Fed Funds rate ceiling up to 5.25%.  However, the swaps market continues to price in an easing cycle by year-end and we just don’t see that happening.  Barkin speaks Friday." 

"There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year.  Goolsbee, Harker, Logan, and Kashkari are now voting members of the FOMC.  Harker and Logan are considered centrists, Kashkari has transformed into a hawk, and Goolsbee is an unknown quantity.  While we hesitate to call these new voters dovish, they replace a group of noted hawks made up of Bullard, Mester, George, and Collins, who become non-voters in 2023.  All seven members of the Board of Governors and Williams (New York Fed is a permanent voter) will remain voters this year."