Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pops on the knee jerk to US CPI and Fed expectations

• Gold price has rallied on the back of US CPI.
• Federal Reserve expectations are little changed, fuelling the bid in the Gold price.

The Gold price is choppy as the markets digest the comprehensive inflation data that has been released from the United States of America. US Consumer Price Index has come out in line with expectations for the month-over-month data 0.4% vs 0.4% expected. Meanwhile, US January CPI for the year came in at +6.4% vs +6.2% expected.

Fed swaps indicate that 2023's anticipated funds rates won't change much as a result and that has seen some softness in the US Dollar which is helping to lift the Gold price. At the time of writing, Gold price is trading in the middle of the day's range at $1,860.

Fed expectations little changed

The market is likely to scale back its interest rate expectations, on this data which is allowing the gold price to rise as although bullion is considered an inflation hedge, it is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yield asset.

Ahead of the data, markets expected the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.188% in July, from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Fed funds futures are now pricing in top-fed funds fund rate of 5.%-5.25% by July, vs earlier near-even odds seen of a higher fed funds rate.

Gold technical analysis

The Gold price has rallied and is moving towards a stronger test of resistance after a series of days of shorts in the market with eyes back on a move into the rising channel near $1,880.