AUD/JPY drops below 91.50 despite chances of more rates from RBA

• AUD/JPY has shifted its business below 91.50 despite soaring hawkish RBA bets.
• The RBA is expected to announce a fifth consecutive 25 bps rate hike move in its battle against stubborn inflation.
• This week, the Japanese Yen will focus on the GDP (Q4) numbers.

The AUD/JPY pair has shifted its auction below 91.50 in the early Asian session. The risk barometer is facing offers while attempting recovery and is expected to continue its downside journey to near 91.30. The cross is not showing signs of recovery despite rising chances of a hawkish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The interest rate decision from RBA Governor Philip Lowe could be more rates announcement despite signs of inflation softening. January’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed a sheer deceleration but is insufficient to force the RBA to consider a pause in the policy-tightening spell.

Apart from the Australian inflation data, quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) were also softened as higher rates by the RBA have forced firms to postpone their expansion plans. The Q4 GDP was expanded by 0.5%, lower than the consensus of 0.8% and the former release of 0.7%.

Analysts at SocGen believe “Recent signs in the macroeconomic data, such as the decline in inflation, the rebound in the Unemployment Rate, relatively lukewarm wages growth and the confirmation of consumption slowdown all support a 25 bps hike in March. They also support our base scenario of a terminal policy rate at 3.85%, despite the financial market’s more hawkish expectation on US Fed policy.”

This week, the Japanese Yen will focus on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data, which is scheduled for Thursday. As per the consensus, the annualized GDP data shows that the Japanese economy has expanded by 0.8% higher than the prior expansion of 0.6%. While the quarterly data is expected to deliver a steady growth of 0.2%.