USD/IDR Price News: Rupiah struggles below 15,400 on downbeat Indonesia Exports, US Retail Sales eyed

• USD/IDR keeps bounce off one-week low, snaps three-day downtrend, after Indonesia foreign trade numbers.
• Indonesia Exports drop 4.51% in February versus 5.0% expected, 16.37% prior.
• Cautious optimism in Asia fails to favor Rupiah bulls amid sluggish session.
• US Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.

USD/IDR stays defensive near 15,375-80, fading the bounce off intraday low, after Indonesia released downbeat prints of foreign trade numbers early Wednesday. However, cautious optimism in Asia and the US Dollar’s failure to keep the previous day’s corrective run-up seem to put a floor under the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) Pair.

Indonesia's Exports nosedive to 4.51% in February from 16.37% growth marked in the last month, versus 5.0% market forecasts. Further, Imports slump to -4.32% versus 9.74% market forecasts and 1.27% prior while the Trade Balance improves to $5.48B from $3.87B prior and $3.27B expected.

Elsewhere, the market’s mixed feelings amid indecision over the risks emanating from the latest fallouts of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank join downbeat Treasury bond yields restrict the USD/IDR pair moves. It should be noted, however, that the mildly bid Asian market seems to keep the pair sellers hopeful.

That said, the S&P 500 Futures remain sidelined despite Wall Street’s upbeat closing but MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rise 1.19% by the press time. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields grind near 3.68% by the press time, after posting the biggest daily gain in five weeks the previous day, whereas the two-year bond coupons struggle to extend the previous day’s recovery from the six-month low, mildly bid near 4.30% at the latest.

If we analyze the latest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields, downbeat US inflation data, increasing optimism towards Fed’s 0.25% rate hike in March and mixed sentiment major attention. On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI ex Food and Energy both matched 6.0% and 5.5% YoY market forecasts, versus 6.4% and 5.6% respective previous readings. “The Federal Reserve is seen raising its benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point next week and again in May, as a government report showed U.S. inflation remained high in February, and concerns of a long-lasting banking crisis eased,” said Reuters following the US inflation data release.

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to Indonesia’s foreign trade numbers, the USD/IDR pair traders should keep their eyes on the US Producer Price Index, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales for February for clear directions.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the six-week-old ascending trend line, previous support near 15,385, becomes necessary to convince USD/IDR bulls. Otherwise, a gradual south-run towards the 200-DMA support of near 15,215 can’t be ruled out.