Canadian GDP Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, strong start to Q1

Canada will release January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday, March 31 at 12:30 GMT as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming growth data. 

January GDP is expected at 2.9% year-on-year vs. 2.3% in December. On a monthly basis, growth is expected to be at 0.4% vs. 0.1% in the previous month.

CIBC

“The 0.6% gain in monthly GDP we forecast would be a few ticks better than the advance estimate, although early indications for February point to a modest giveback during that month.”

TDS

“We look for January GDP to print above flash estimates at +0.4%. Growth should be broad-based, with unseasonably warm weather providing a tailwind. A 0.4% print would leave Q1 GDP tracking well above BoC forecasts, though financial stability concerns take precedent for the moment. We look at somewhat larger deficit projections in the budget compared to the Fall Economic Statement.”

NBF

“Judging from industry-level reports published to date, economic output may have increased 0.3% in the month, as gains for mining/quarrying/oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, wholesale and transportation/warehousing were likely partially offset by declines for construction and retail.”

RBC Economics

“Canadian GDP is expected to tick higher 0.3% MoM.”