US Dollar Index builds on the post-NFP positive move, lacks bullish conviction

• The US Dollar Index edges higher for the fourth straight day on Monday, though lacks follow-through.
• The upbeat US NFP report revives bets for additional Fed rate hikes and is seen underpinning the buck.
• Geopolitical tensions further benefit the safe-haven Greenback and remain supportive of the move up.
• Expectations that the Fed will cut rates during the second half of the year cap the upside for the USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, kicks off the new week on a positive note and builds on its recent bounce from the lowest level since early February touched last Wednesday. This marks the fourth successive day of a positive move for the buck, though lacks follow-through or bullish conviction amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path.

The mostly upbeat US monthly employment details released on Friday suggested that the US central bank may have to raise interest rates next month. In fact, the headline NFP showed that the US economy added 236K new jobs in March against market expectations for a reading of 240K. Furthermore, the jobless rate edged down to 3.5% from 3.6% the previous, while Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3% during the reported month. The annual wage gains, meanwhile, slowed, though remain too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target and support prospects for further policy tightening.

Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation in tensions between the US and China is seen as another factor benefitting the Greenback's relative safe-haven status. It is worth mentioning that China retaliated against Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s US visit and carried out aggressive military drills around Taiwan on Monday. The de facto US embassy in Taiwan said on Sunday the US has sufficient resources and capabilities regionally to ensure peace and stability. This comes amid worries about a deeper global economic downturn, which continues to weigh on investors' sentiment and drives some haven flows.

Market participants, however, seem convinced that the Fed will cut rates in the second half of the year and the expectations were fueled by the recent US macro data, which has been pointing to slowing economic growth. This, in turn, might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, due on Wednesday. This week's US economic docket also features the release of the latest consumer inflation figures and monthly retail sales data, which if misses consensus estimates will take Fed rate-hike bets off the table and weigh on the USD.

Technical levels to watch