Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recedes from tops near $2050

• Gold prices correct lower after three daily gains in a row.
• The dollar’s rebound along with higher yields weigh on bullion.
• US Retail Sales surprised to the downside in March.

Following new 2023 highs near the $2050 mark per ounce troy as well as a 3-day positive streak, the precious metal embarked on a corrective decline which has so far met initial contention near $2015 on Friday.

Corrective drop triggered by USD, yields

The so far daily retracement in the yellow metal came in response to the rebound in the greenback after the USD Index (DXY) sank to new 2023 lows in the 100.80/75 band earlier in the European session. Also weighing on bullion appears the moderated bounce in US yields across the curve, at the time when investors continue to price in a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed at the May 3 gathering.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the above-mentioned scenario hovers around the 80%, from around 40% a month ago.

Gold price technical outlook

If gold surpasses the so far 2023 peak at $2048 (April 13) it could then open the door to a probable move to the 2022 high at $2070 (March 8), which lies just ahead of the all-time top at $2075 (August 7 2020). Bears, in the meantime, should clear the minor support at the weekly low at $1981 (April 10) to spark a deeper retracement to the April low at $1949 (April 3) ahead of another weekly low at $1934 (March 22). Further losses could put the 55- and 100-day SMAs at $1909 and $1874, respectively, back on the traders’ radar prior to the March low at $1809 (March 8) and the 2023 low at $1804 (February 28).