EUR/USD will close the week relatively unchanged around 1.0800 – Commerzbank

Today's data on February inflation in the Eurozone could cause some movement in the Euro. We expect a seasonally adjusted monthly rate of change of 0.4%, which signals that the disinflation process in the Eurozone has recently slowed down. However, this might not stop those who are paying attention to the overall rate from perhaps allowing the Euro to dip once again. After all, the fact that June is now well cemented in the market as the start of the ECB's interest rate cutting cycle makes it difficult for the Euro to benefit from higher inflation rates.

The Euro will hardly be able to benefit from a core rate that falls less sharply than expected. The market may rather focus on the somewhat sharper fall in the headline rate, which could lead a few more to believe that an ECB rate cut is possible before June after all. That would then argue for lower EUR/USD quotes. But to be honest, I don't expect any major moves in this direction, especially not so close to the ECB meeting, which will give us more information.

I can therefore well imagine that EUR/USD will close the week relatively unchanged around 1.0800. But if I had to choose a side, I would probably pick the weaker side in EUR/USD.