EUR/USD jitters post-Fed with NFP Friday over the horizon

• EUR/USD churned after Fed rate hold.
• Investors pivoting to focus on Friday’s US NFP.
• Quiet Thursday ahead with mid-tier data.

EUR/USD cycled familiar territory on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates as many investors had expected. However, market participants were hoping for further signs of impending rate cuts from the US central bank. At current cut, rate markets are anticipating a first and only rate cut for the year in November.

Powell speech: Unlikely that next policy rate move would be a hike

Thursday sees final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures from Europe, with markets expecting the prints to land exactly where preliminary figures had come in. Manufacturing currently comprises less than 24% of the overall European economy.

Friday’s US NFP will drive much of the market momentum to close out the trading week, with markets expecting a print of 243K in April versus the previous month’s 303K. Revisions to data will be closely watched as layoffs continue to plague larger sections of the US economy. Investors are also hoping that Average Hourly Earnings MoM in April hold flat at 0.3% as wages continue to be the popular target for broad-market inflation fears.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD has churned in near-term consolidation for six consecutive trading days as the pair grapples with the 1.0700 handle. The 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides a key midrange level, with rough upper and lower bounds at 1.0740 and 1.0650.

A near-term floor has been priced in near the 1.0600 handle on daily candles, but the pair has struggled on the bearish side of the 200-day EMA near 1.0790.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart