EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair recovers slightly, still below 20-day SMA

• EUR/USD edges higher on Friday, settling at 1.0495 as it approaches the 20-day SMA.
• RSI rises sharply to 44 but remains in negative territory, indicating improving momentum within a bearish context.

The EUR/USD pair managed a modest rebound on Friday, rising by 0.2% to 1.0495 after testing fresh lows earlier in the week. The pair inched closer to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0550 but failed to breach it, keeping the short-term outlook tilted to the downside.

Technical indicators show signs of stabilization but remain broadly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen sharply to 44, reflecting improving momentum, though it stays in negative territory, indicating the recovery lacks robust follow-through. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to print decreasing green bars, signaling persistent bearish pressure despite the daily gains.

For the bulls to regain control, EUR/USD must decisively reclaim the 20-day SMA, currently near 1.0550, to shift the outlook to neutral or positive. Until then, the bearish bias remains intact, with immediate support at the psychological 1.0500 level, followed by 1.0480. Failure to hold above these levels could accelerate the downside.

EUR/USD daily chart