Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,650 as traders await fresh catalysts

• Gold price holds steady around $2,640 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• US Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 in December vs. 48.4 prior, stronger than expected. 
• Sustained geopolitical risks and a wave of purchases by central banks could lift the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain ground near $2,640 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) after the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) weighs on the yellow metal. All eyes will be on the US labor market data for December on Friday for fresh impetus. 

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in December from 48.4 in November. This reading was above the market consensus of 48.4. The upbeat data has lifted the Greenback and dragged the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) projection of fewer interest rate cuts could undermine the non-yielding asset. The US central bank decided to cut the interest rates in December but signaled that borrowing costs will fall more slowly than previously expected this year. 

On the other hand, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions might boost a safe-haven asset like Gold. On Sunday, Israel and Hamas wrangled over a deal to cease violence in the Gaza Strip and return hostages home as Palestinian officials said that Israeli bombardments killed over 100 people over the weekend.

Central bank purchasing activities could contribute to the precious metal’s upside. Central banks are forecast to continue to be net buyers of around 8 million oz. in 2025, roughly unchanged to a bit lower than in 2024.