AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6220 as US Q4 GDP takes centre stage

• AUD/USD trades sideways above 0.6200 ahead of US Q4 GDP data.
• The Fed guided a cautious stance on interest rates amid fears of stalling disinflation trend.
• Market participants are confident that the RBA will pivot to policy-easing next month.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6220 in Thursday’s European session. The Aussie pair struggles for a direction, following the footprints of the US Dollar (USD), which is lacklustre after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement in which it kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

The Fed was already anticipated to maintain status quo as progress in the disinflation trend towards the central bank’s target of 2% has slowed. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell guided to hold interest rates at their current levels until the central bank sees "real progress on inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”.

Meanwhile, investors await the United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Economists expect the US economy to have expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6%, slower than 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter of 2024. Signs of strong GDP growth would add to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. On the contrary, signals of slower growth rate are unlikely to impact expectations for Fed’s interest rate stance as investors see US President Donald Trump’s economic agenda as pro-growth and inflationary for the economy.

On the Aussie front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) performs weakly amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start reducing interest rates from the policy meeting in February. Analysts at ANZ said that a “sharper-than-expected” slowdown in inflation would provide the RBA with enough confidence to lower its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its next meeting.