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Cортувати за валютними парами
11.05.2012
17:37
American focus: euro fluctuated

 

The euro weakened for a second week, touching a three-month low versus the dollar, as concern builds that Greece may be forced to withdraw from the currency union with the nation’s politicians unable to form a government. The 17-nation currency rose earlier after the leader of Greece’s New Democracy Party said four parties have vowed to remain in the euro if they form part of the next administration. Gross domestic product in the euro area will drop 0.3 percent this year, the European Commission said, reiterating a February forecast. Greece will have the deepest contraction, with GDP shrinking 4.7 percent, while the economies of Spain and Italy are seen falling 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

The yen rose against most of their 16 major peers after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it made a surprise $2 billion trading loss, boosting demand for safer assets. The yen erased earlier gains against some of its major counterparts after a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence topped economists’ estimates, renewing appetite for some higher- yielding assets.

The pound fell against the dollar, extending a second weekly decline, after an industry report showed U.K. consumer confidence dropped last month as the economy slipped into a double-dip recession. Sterling weakened versus most of its major peers as signs economic outlook is worsening raised the prospect that Governor Mervyn King will hint at resuming bond purchases, or quantitative easing, when the central bank releases its Inflation Report next week.

13:55
U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, May 77.8 (forecast 76.5)
13:07
European session: The euro rose from a three-month low against the dollar

 

Data:

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) April +0.4% +0.1% +0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) April +2.3% +2.0% +2.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April +1.9% -0.8% -1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April +5.8% +2.1% +1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April +0.6% +0.4% +0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April +3.6% +2.9% +3.3%

The euro rose from a three-month low against the dollar on optimism Greek political leaders will reach an agreement to form a new government that keeps the country in the single currency union. The 17-nation currency erased losses against the yen as Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece’s New Democracy Party, said four political parties have accepted term of no exit from the euro region.

Gross domestic product in the euro area will drop 0.3 percent this year, the European Commission said, reiterating a February forecast. Greece will have the deepest contraction, with GDP shrinking 4.7 percent, while the economies of Spain and Italy are seen contracting 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent.

The dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it made a surprise $2 billion trading loss, boosting demand for safer assets.

 

EUR/USD: in the European session the pair gain, updated a day time high at $1,2955.

GBP/USD: the pair fell to yesterday's low at $1,6085.

USD/JPY: the pair rose, updated day time high at Y80,00.


US data starts at 1230GMT with producer prices, which are expected to hold steady again in April after the flat reading in March. Energy prices are expected to decline further after falling 1.0% in March. The core PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in the month after the 0.3% increase in March. At 1315GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the  Texas Bankers Association 128th Annual Convention. US data continues at 1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to hold steady at a reading of 76.4 in early-May after rising slightly in April.

12:31
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, April +2.7% (forecast +2.8%)
12:31
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, April +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI, y/y, April +1.9% (forecast +2.1%)
12:30
U.S.: PPI, m/m, April -0.2% (forecast 0.0%)
12:30
Canada: Employment , April 58.2 (forecast 12.9)
12:30
Canada: Unemployment rate, April 7.3% (forecast 7.3%)
12:00
Orders:

 

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980, $1.2960

Bids $1.2900, $1.2860/90


USD/JPY

Offers Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.35/40, Y80.20, Y80.05/10, Y80.00

Bids Y79.50, Y79.40/35, Y79.25, Y79.00, Y78.85/80


EUR/JPY

Offers Y104.50, Y104.25/30, Y104.10, Y103.90/00, Y103.80

Bids Y103.00/95, Y102.90, Y102.80/70, Y102.50, Y102.20/15


AUD/USD

Offers $1.0190, $1.0150/60, $1.0140/45, $1.0125/30, $1.0100, $1.0080/85

Bids $1.0020, $1.0000, $0.9990/80, $0.9950, $0.9920/10, $0.9990, $0.9885/80

11:39
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y81.20 (area of 38,2% FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40, МА (200) on Н4)

Resistance 2: Y80.55/60 (area of May 2-3 high, resistance lines from Mar 23)

Resistance 1: Y80.00/10 (area of a session high and May 8 high)

The current price: Y79.91

Support 1: Y79.70 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.40 (May 9 low)

Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8% FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)


 

11:21
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (Mar high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9305 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9294

Support 1: Chf0.9255 (May 10 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high, May 7-8 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 low)


 

11:02
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of May 7-8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6170 (resistance line from May 7)

The current price: $1.6106

Support 1 : $1.6090 (May 10 low)

Support 2 : $1.6060 (50,0% FIBO $1,5820-$1,6300, May 9 low)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (61,8% FIBO $1,5820-$1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level)


 

10:42
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.3120 (МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, May 7-8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2980 (May 10 high)

The current price: $1.2943

Support 1 : $1.2900 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2870 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2620 (Jan low)


 

10:04
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.10, Y81.00

GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6150, $1.6200

EUR/GBP stg0.7970

AUD/USD $0.9950, $1.0120, $1.0150, $1.0195, $1.0200

 

09:43
EU Commission: see eurozone gdp down 0.3% in 2012, up 1.0% in 2013

 

  • Eurozone hicp seen at +2.4% in 2012, +1.8% in 2013

  • Eurozone unemployment to stay around 11% through 2013
  • recovery in sight but economic situation fragile
  • Greece gdp seen down 4.7% in 2012, flat in 2013
  • Greece 2012 deficit 7.3%/gdp, 2013 deficit 8.4%
  • Greece 2012 public debt 160.6%/gdp, 2013 168%
  • Germany gdp to grow +0.7% in 2012, +1.7% in 2013
  • Germany hicp seen at +2.3% in 2012, +1.8% in 2013

 

08:31
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , April +3.3% (forecast +2.9%)
08:31
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), April +0.7% (forecast +0.4%)
08:31
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , April +1.2% (forecast +2.1%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), April -1.5% (forecast -0.8%)
08:29
Asian session:

 

Data:

01:30 China CPI y/y April +3.6% +3.5% +3.4%

01:30 China PPI y/y April -0.3% -0.5% -0.7%

05:30 China Industrial Production y/y April +11.9% +12.1% +9.3%

05:30 China Retail Sales y/y April +15.2% +15.1% +14.1%

 

The euro are under pressure before Italy sells short-term debt today amid concern the region’s debt crisis is deepening.

The common currency fell as Greece’s political leaders go into a fifth day of talks to form a government and before data that may show the euro region’s economy contracted.

Italy plans to raise as much as 10 billion euros ($12.9 billion) from bill sales. The dollar and the yen were bound for a weekly gain versus most major as JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it made a $2 billion trading loss, boosting demand for safer assets.

 

EUR/USD: the pair showed low in $1,2900 area then slightly receded.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased in $1.6100 area.

USD/JPY: the pair receded in Y79.80 area.

 

US data starts at 1230GMT with producer prices, which are expected to hold steady again in April after the flat reading in March. Energy

prices are expected to decline further after falling 1.0% in March. The core PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in the month after the 0.3% increase

in March. At 1315GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the  Texas Bankers Association 128th Annual Convention. US data continues at

1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to hold steady at a reading of 76.4 in early-May after rising slightly in April.


07:02
Spain: Apr HICP +1.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y
06:00
Germany: CPI, y/y , April +2.2% (forecast +2.0%)
06:00
Germany: CPI, m/m, April +0.1% (forecast +0.1%)
05:42
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro rose from a three-month low as Europe’s bailout fund confirmed that aid to Greece had been received and officials said progress was made forming a government, easing concern the nation will leave the monetary union. Greece’s socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos said he saw the first “good omen” in four days of attempts to form a coalition government and avert a new election. Greece “can continue to function with the disbursement,” commission spokesman Olivier Bailly told reporters in Brussels after yesterday’s European Financial Stability Facility decision to disburse immediately only 4.2 billion euros ($5.4 billion) of a 5.2 billion-euro loan tranche. The remaining 1 billion euros will be “disbursed in due time to cover future needs.”

The British pound rose against the dollar after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held its quantitative easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus.

 

EUR/USD: during yesterday's session the pair was limited $1.2920-$ 1,2980.

GBP/USD: despite of volatility, positions of pair on results of yesterday's session  changed appreciably.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose in Y80.00 area.

 

At 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report is due.

UK data at 0830GMT sees the April Producer Price Index as well as March Construction Output data. PPI is expected to show the trend of

rising input prices coming to an end, with analysts' median forecast for a 0.8% drop on the month following March's 1.9% rise (median 2.1% y/y).

US data starts at 1230GMT with producer prices, which are expected to hold steady again in April after the flat reading in March. Energy

prices are expected to decline further after falling 1.0% in March. The core PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in the month after the 0.3% increase

in March. At 1315GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the  Texas Bankers Association 128th Annual Convention. US data continues at

1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to hold steady at a reading of 76.4 in early-May after rising slightly in April.


05:34
China: Retail Sales y/y, April +14.1% (forecast +15.1%)
05:33
China: Industrial Production y/y, April +9.3% (forecast +12.1%)
04:36
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y81.20 (area of 38,2 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40, МА (200) on Н4)
Resistance 2: Y80.50/55 (area of May 2-3 highs, resistance line from Mar 23)
Resistance 1: Y80.00/10 (area of session high and May 8 high)
Current price: Y79.85
Support 1: Y79.80 (support line from May 9)
Support 2: Y79.40 (May 9 low)
Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)


 

04:31
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (high of March)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9300 (area of session high and May 9 high)
Current price: Chf0.9294
Support 1: Chf0.9255 (May 10 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high, May 7-8 lows and resistance line from Mar 15)
Support 3: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 lows)


Комментарии: на Н4 сформировалась дивергенция между ценой и индикатором МACD, что повышает вероятность коррекции в ближайшее время.

 

04:27
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of May 7-8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6170 (resistance line from May 7, МА (200) on Н1)

Current price: $1.6119

Support 1 : $1.6090 (May 10 low)

Support 2 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, May 9 low)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level)


 

04:22
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3 : $1.3120 (МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, May 7-8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2980 (May 10 high)

Current price: $1.2936

Support 1 : $1.2900 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2870 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2620 (low of January)


Комментарии: на Н4 сформировалась дивергенция между ценой и индикатором МACD, что повышает вероятность коррекции в ближайшее время. Также стоит отметить, что на D1 индикатор RSI приближается к зоне перепроданности (на текущий момент значение индикатора находится на уровне 31,6567).

 

04:11
Forex. Daily history for May 10'2012:

 


EUR/USD $1,2932 -0,02%
GBP/USD $1,6132 +0,02%
USD/CHF Chf0,9288 +0,04%
USD/JPY Y79,89 +0,34%
EUR/JPY Y103,31 +0,31%
GBP/JPY Y128,85 +0,33%
AUD/USD $1,0057 +0,16%
NZD/USD $0,7837 -0,01%
USD/CAD C$1,0030 +0,08%

 

04:00
Schedule for today, Friday, May 11'2012:

01:30 China CPI y/y April +3.6% +3.5% +3.4%

01:30 China PPI y/y April -0.3% -0.5% -0.7%

05:30 China Industrial Production y/y April +11.9% +12.1%

05:30 China Retail Sales y/y April +15.2% +15.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) April +0.4% +0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) April +2.3% +2.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April +1.9% -0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April +5.8% +2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April +0.6% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April +3.6% +2.9%

12:30 Canada Employment April 82.3 12.9

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate April 7.2% 7.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April 0.0% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April +2.8% +2.1%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +2.9% +2.8%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) May 76.4 76.5

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