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- Barclays: FOMC minutes to reveal if hike cycle if complete or still part of baseline outlook
Barclays: FOMC minutes to reveal if hike cycle if complete or still part of baseline outlook
"We look to the minutes of the January FOMC meeting for insights as to whether FOMC participants see the rate hike cycle as essentially complete or whether members still expect further rate hikes as part of the baseline outlook. In other words, many FOMC participants have communicated a desire to remain “patient” or “pause” the rate hike cycle to evaluate the incoming data, while the language in the statement suggests that the tightening cycle is complete and the committee has no upward bias in its forward guidance," Barclays notes.
"The minutes should also provide information about what caused the committee to assess that financial conditions had tightened and shift the balance of risks to the downside. In addition, we expect the minutes to signal that the committee is prepared to release its plan on how it will end runoff of its balance sheet “soon,” which we believe will come at the March meeting," Barclays adds.
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