- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- US: What is the yield curve signalling? – TD Securities
US: What is the yield curve signalling? – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts note that with 3m-10y curve hitting its lowest level since 2007, US recession fears have re-emerged.
“Historically, a US recession follows a year after the curve inverts, though the variance is large. There are also occasional false positives. Some have argued that the curve is distorted by the reach for yield due to global central bank QE. However, we would counter that the reach for yield itself is a function of weak global growth and below-target inflation. Our 3m-10y recession probability model estimates a 55% chance of a recession within 12 months, which is the highest level since 2007. This supports our Fed call of 50bp of more eases in 2019 (September and October), followed by an additional 75bp of easing in 2020. It also supports our long 10y Treasury stance.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
