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- Morgan Stanley says U.S. vote result delay may boost treasuries
Morgan Stanley says U.S. vote result delay may boost treasuries
Bloomberg reports that it’s possible the winner of the U.S. presidential vote won’t be known for some time after election day, which means investors should plan for potential uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley.
Voting-by-mail will probably turn what’s usually an “election night” into at least an “election week,” if not a month or longer, strategists led by Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore wrote in a note. That lack of clarity on Nov. 3 gives investors an opportunity to hedge, with potential flights to quality in focus, they said.
“Before election results appear with certainty, we expect risk appetite to be low among investors, which will likely keep a bid for U.S. Treasuries,” Zezas and Salvatore said.
“The more time it takes to get a result with certainty, the flight-to-quality bid could increase,” they added, as the “longer it takes to get the result, it increases the probability that the results are close, which could then signal that we’re headed toward a divided government outcome,” with the potential for tighter fiscal policy.
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