UK faces two-sided risks to economic recovery, but those risks are declining as time goes by
Toolkit decisions should not be interpreted about signal of future policy path
Negative rates contingency planning implies nothing about our intentions in that direction
Contingency planning for negative rates does not imply it is our chosen policy tool
QE is set to run its course at the end of the year
Covid has been both a demand and supply shock to the economy, and the recovery, therefore, has to be in both elements. Absent a dual recovery, dealing with the issues that arise will be more difficult.
Longer-term scarring damage to the economy will be more limited than in some past recessions, but there will most likely be structural change
Important to boost supply capacity to raise the sustainable rate of growth.”
Important to emphasize the role of the forward guidance that the MPC has adopted, and the announcements made a month ago on so-called toolbox issues.
Far from clear whether or to what degree changes to the economy during covid will persist post-covid and therefore what will be the longer-term impact on the economy.
My best guess is we will see some persistence of structural changes of the economy under covid, not full persistence but not a full reversion to pre-covid either.
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