- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD face downside risks as safe-haven appetite could subside – TDS
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD face downside risks as safe-haven appetite could subside – TDS
Strategists at TD Securities turn their attention to gold flows to gauge the sustainability of interest in the yellow metal as real rates could be less useful as a barometer for measuring gold's relative price. Strong ETF inflows into gold leave XAU/USD at risk of falling in case safe-appetite subsides.
Gold's recent disconnect against real rates is consistent with historical precedents
“Gold's correlation to real rates is subject to regime shifts, such that expectations for fed funds help to explain the regime. In fact, the monthly correlation between gold prices and real rates tends to deteriorate during hiking cycles, which suggests that gold's recent disconnect against real rates is consistent with historical precedents.”
“ETF flows have tended to be more highly correlated to changes in market expectations for Fed hiking, than to real rates, the yield curve or even price momentum. This still suggests that the strong ETF inflows have rather been associated with safe-haven appetite, which could still lead to downside risks as the negotiators continue to work towards a ceasefire and as the fear trade subsides.”
© 2000-2025. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
