USD/JPY bears in the driving seat, testing 135 the figure

• USD/JPY bears take control at the start of the week.
• A busy schedule awaits the markets in the US calendar. 

USD/JPY is being pressured at the start of the week, trading down around 0.13% and has pierced below 135 the figure in recent trade ahead of the equities open in Tokyo. The Japanese yen was strongest in the G10 on Friday and is continuing on that path. USD/JPY steadied down a net 40 pips at 135.25.

Meanwhile, the 10-year US yield is trading near 2.96% and is below 3.0% for the first time since June 10 which is benefitting the yen.  yen bulls are in anticipation of a clean break below 3.0% sets up a test of the May 26 low near 2.70%.

''Given where inflation and the Fed are right now, we find it hard to justify a 10-year yield much below 3.0% but here we are,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained. ''As long as recession fears dominate, this move lower hasn't run its course yet.  And it's a global phenomenon, as 10-year yields everywhere are also down significantly in recent days. Yet we continue to feel that the US is best-positioned as we enter this new phase for global investors.  As such, we believe the dollar uptrend remains intact.''

Indeed, the USD/JPY bears are taking control ahead of what is scheduled to be a busy week on the US calendar. The first full week Friday of the month, as per usual, holds the critical Nonfarm Payrolls.  The data is expected to show that Employment likely continued to advance firmly in June but at a more moderate pace after three consecutive job gains of around 400k in March-May, the analysts at TD Securities said. ''High-frequency data, including Homebase, still point to above-trend job creation. We also look for the UE rate to stay unchanged at 3.6% for a fourth straight month, and for wage growth to remain steady at 0.3% MoM (5.0% YoY).''

Before then, we have the Federal Reserve minutes of the June meeting that will also be eyed. ''Persistent high CPI inflation and nascent signs of de-anchoring inflation expectations forced the Fed to amp the pace of rate tightening. The meeting minutes are likely to offer further colour around the Fed's more hawkish reaction function,'' the analysts at TD Securities said.