NZD/USD grinds higher towards 0.6400 with eyes on US/China inflation

• NZD/USD begins the week on a softer footing after Friday’s heavy jump, picking up bids of late.
• US data drowned Treasury yields, DXY but Fed Officials flash mixed signals.
• China-linked headlines favor bulls amid a sluggish start to the key week.
• US, China CPI will be crucial amid indecision on the Fed’s next move, PBOC’s optimism.

NZD/USD picks up bids to 0.6355 as it pares the week-start gap towards the south, after rising the most in two months the previous day. In doing so, the Kiwi pair takes clues from the market’s cautious optimism amid mostly downbeat US data and the risk-positive headlines from China, one of the key consumers of New Zealand and the world’s biggest commodity user.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print 0.20% intraday gains following Friday’s heavy run-up as the weekend updates from the officials of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have been mostly against the US Dollar.

That said, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic highlighted the fears of the US economic slowdown while outgoing Chicago Fed President Charles Evans favored a 0.50% rate hike in December. Further, Kansas City Fed President Esther George highlighted inflation fears whereas Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin praised the last two months of inflation reports by terming them as “a step in the right direction,” but marked fears from the higher median figures.

It should be noted that the Fed officials’ mixed comments could be linked to the downbeat prints of the US ISM Services PMI as well as the Factory Orders that drowned the Treasury bond yields. On the contrary, price-positive updates from China help the NZD/USD pair to remain firmer.

“The world’s second-largest economy is expected to quickly rebound because of the country’s optimized Covid-19 response and after its economic policies continue to take effect,” Bloomberg quotes an interview from Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), to People’s Daily published on Sunday.

Elsewhere, China’s reopening of the national border after a three-year pause and early signals suggesting heavy shopping during the festive season also underpin the NZD/USD pair’s upside momentum.

However, the cautious mood ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December from China and the US, up for publishing on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, will be crucial amid the market’s indecision over the Fed’s next move, as well as PBOC’s favor for easy money policies. Should the inflation fears remain well-anchored, the US Dollar may consolidate the latest losses, which in turn could weigh on the NZD/USD prices.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of the three-week-old descending trend line, around 0.6340 by the press time, keeps NZD/USD buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting, that the Kiwi bears remain off the table unless witnessing a daily closing below the 50-DMA support of 0.6233.