USD/IDR Price Analysis: Bears attack 200-DMA with eyes on Bank Indonesia Rate decision

• USD/IDR struggles to extend losses despite breaking seven-month-old support line as traders await Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate decision.
• 200-DMA, oversold RSI conditions also challenge bears around multi-day low.
• Buyers remain off the table unless rising back beyond 100-DMA.
• BI is expected to end the rate-hike cycle with 0.25% lift in benchmark interest rate.

USD/IDR bears pressure on the key moving average as the key awaits the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate decision during early Thursday. In doing so, the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) extends the retreat from seven-month-old previous support to $15,100 by the press time.

That said, the BI is up for the final blow in the fight again inflation as market forecasts suggest the last 0.25% rate hike before the end of monetary policy contraction, at least for now. Bank Indonesia will deliver another 25 basis points interest rate hike on Thursday as it tries to bring inflation under control without having a big impact on economic growth, a Reuters poll of economists forecast.

On the technical front, the quote’s sustained weakness below an upward-sloping trend line from early June 2022 joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the USD/IDR sellers hopeful.

However, the oversold RSI conditions join the 200-DMA, around $15,100 by the press time, to challenge the bears.

Should the quote drops below $15,100, the August 2022 peak surrounding $14,980 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the USD/IDR pair’s June-November upside, near $14,910, could challenge the pair sellers.

On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, close to $15,200 by the press time, appears necessary to recall the USD/IDR bulls.

Even so, the early December swing low near $15,290 and the 100-DMA level around $15,420, could test the upside momentum.

USD/IDR: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected