NZD/USD Price Analysis: Further upside hinges on 0.6415 breakout

• NZD/USD grinds near intraday high as key resistance confluence challenges buyers.
• Convergence of 50-EMA, 100-EMA and one-week-old previous support line probe Kiwi bulls.
• Sellers need validation from 0.6315 to retake control.

NZD/USD buyers attack the short-term key hurdle above 0.6400 while bracing for the second weekly gain on early Friday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair also consolidates the previous day’s losses, the biggest on daily play in two weeks, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) defends its easy-money policy with the latest status quo.

PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPRs unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30%, as expected, during its latest monetary policy meeting. With this, the Chinese central bank keeps the rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive month and defends its easy-money policy.

Even if the PBOC-led risk-on mood joins the softer US Dollar to propel the NZD/USD price, the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) joins the 50-EMA and the weekly support-turned-resistance to challenge the bulls around 0.6415.

It should be noted that the bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful of crossing the stated hurdle.

Following that, the 0.6460 and the 0.6500 round figure may please the Kiwi bulls before directing them to the monthly peak of 0.6531.

Alternatively, the previous day’s low of 0.6365 restricts the immediate downside of the quote, a break of which will highlight the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the NZD/USD pair’s January 06-18 upside, near 0.6315.

In a case where NZD/USD remains weaker past 0.6315, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the monthly low of 0.6190 can’t be ruled out.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Pullback expected