Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates around $20.00, bears retain control near YTD low

• Silver bounces off a multi-month low set earlier this Wednesday, though lacks bullish conviction.
• Slightly oversold RSI turns out to be a key factor that prompts some intraday short-covering move.
• The technical setup still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further near-term losses.

Silver shows some resilience below the $20.00 psychological mark and stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since early November touched earlier this Wednesday. The white metal sticks to its modest gains, around the $20.10-$20.15 area heading into the North American session, though any meaningful upside still seems elusive.

The intraday uptick could be solely attributed to some short-covering amid a slightly oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. That said, the overnight sustained break through the $20.50-$20.40 horizontal support, which coincided with the previous YTD low, was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, acceptance below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports prospects for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the $24.65 area witnessed over the past month or so.

Some follow-through selling below the $20.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and pave the way for further losses. The XAG/USD could then slide to the $19.60 intermediate support before dropping to the $19.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could get extended towards the $18.80-$18.75 area en route to the next relevant support near the $18.30-$18.25 horizontal zone and the $18.00 level.

On the flip side, the $20.40-$20.50 support breakpoint now seems to act as an immediate strong resistance. Any further recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remains capped near the 200-day SMA, currently pegged just ahead of the $21.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might prompt some short-covering move and lift the XAG/USD towards the mid-$21.00s. Bulls might then aim back to reclaim the $22.00 round-figure mark.

Silver daily chart

Key levels to watch