The Dollar downtrend has strong roots – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Macro Strategist at Societe Generale, offers a brief outlook for the US Dollar (USD) and maintains a near-term bearish outlook.

Key quotes:

“The FX market repeated a familiar recent pattern, the dollar getting an afternoon lift as decent data sent MOVE and yields higher. With US equities shrugging off the bond market (again), solid Chinese data (GDP and retail sales, notably) risk sentiment is buoyant this morning and that’s got the dollar back on the back foot. The US calendar throws out housing starts, building permits and NY Fed services activity this afternoon, which doesn’t sound exciting enough to move things much.”

“The biggest winner from dollar softness overnight has been AUD. Stronger Chinese GDP (4.5% y/y) confirms robust reopening and that along with discussion of further rate hikes in the RBA Minutes, has given it a bit of a lift. Not enough of one to break the recent 0.66-0.68 range in AUD/USD, however. Still, if the AUD can break above that level, I think it has a chance of accelerating.”

“With little US data today, Canadian CPI can be a focus instead. Consensus looks for headline inflation to drop from 5.2% to 4.3%, with the trimmed mean falling from 4.8% to 4.4%. Soft inflation plays into BOC doves’ hands, but helps the economy, too. As long as USD/CAD doesn’t get back above 1.3450, the current downtrend remains intact.”