Market news
18.09.2023, 21:01

EUR/GBP rallying into 0.8630 as Sterling waffles ahead of BoE rate call

  • The EUR/GBP pair is set to confirm a bullish breakout as the Pound Sterling steps lower.
  • With the ECB’s latest rate call in the rearview mirror, focus turns to the BoE’s upcoming rate hike.
  • The trading week will cap off action with PMI data for both the EU and the UK.

The EUR/GBP is grinding higher to kick off the trading week, decisively climbing over the 0.8600 handle and extending upwards as the Bank of England (BoE) looms over the horizon.

Sterling bulls need to survive Wednesday's inflation figures before BoE rate call

The BoE is broadly expected to lift the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 5.5% on Thursday, but market action will be positioning early as inflation figures for the British economy will land on Wednesday beforehand.

The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will hit markets at 06:00 on Wednesday, with the headline inflation figure for August forecast to show a step up to 0.7%, compared to the previous decline of -0.4%.

Thursday sees the BoE lifting interest rates once more as the UK’s central bank struggles to gain firm control of inflation, with prices continuing to tick higher despite already-high interest rates threatening to tip over the British economy.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hike last week hit the Euro hard after the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde noted that this is looking like the end of the ECB’s rate hike cycle. Investors will now be turning to the BoE’s upcoming showing to reposition the EUR/GBP exchange rate.

Further into the week, both the EUR and the GBP will see Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures. The EU’s pan-continent activity outlook is expected to tick slightly lower to 46.3 versus the previous 46.7. On the UK side, purchasing manager expectations are expected to hold steady at 48.6.

EUR/GBP technical outlook

The Euro-Pound Sterling pair is bounding higher for Monday, clipping into six-week highs as the GBP waffles ahead of the week’s central bank showing.

The EUR/GBP has broken north of a descending trendline from mid-July’s peak of 0.8700, and continued bullish momentum will be capped off by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently floating just above 0.8710.

Despite Monday’s bullish bust-out, prices remain relatively consolidated for the EUR/GBP pair, and market sentiment will be quick to pull the plug and reverse direction if bullish momentum hesitates too strongly from 0.8660, and level that has capped the pair recently.

EUR/GBP daily chart

EUR/GBP technical levels


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