- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- BoC Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for USD/CAD – TDS
BoC Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for USD/CAD – TDS
Economists at TD Securities discuss the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision and its implications for the USD/CAD pair.
Base Case: Mildly Hawkish (70%)
The BoC leaves overnight rate at 5.00% and notes concern about persistent price pressures despite more evidence of waning demand. Modest downgrades to GDP/CPI in Jan MPR, with latter driven by energy prices, as unchanged forward guidance keeps the (empty) threat of rate hikes on the table going forward. USD/CAD -0.10%.
Dovish: (25%)
Bank leaves overnight rate at 5.00% but lays some early groundwork for rate cuts with dovish tweaks to forward guidance by dropping the reference to further hikes. Statement also cites concern around underlying prices/wage pressures despite weaker growth backdrop, while revised guidance introduces some caveats to the timeline for cuts. USD/CAD +0.30%.
Extremely Dovish (5%)
The BoC leaves overnight rate at 5.00% but throws caution to the wind by dropping threat of hikes and leaving guidance open-ended. Statement notes that headwinds to activity have increased and that inflation pressures have subsided outside of shelter component. MPR revises GDP/CPI growth lower over 2023/24, projects flat print on Q4 GDP. USD/CAD +0.70%.
© 2000-2025. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
