Market news
14.04.2024, 23:33

AUD/USD sticks to modest gains, upside seems limited amid geopolitical risks and bullish USD

  • AUD/USD stages a modest recovery from a two-month low touched on Friday.
  • The uptick seems unaffected by the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend.
  • Reduced Fed rate cut bets favor the USD bulls and should cap gains for the pair.

The AUSD/USD pair attracts some buyers on the first day of a new week and recovers a part of Friday's losses to the 0.6455 area, or its lowest level since February 14. Spot prices, meanwhile, react little to the latest geopolitical developments and trade around the 0.6470-0.6475 region during the Asian session, though any meaningful appreciating move still seems elusive. 

Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria earlier this month, raising the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. The markets, however, remain relatively calm, which is evident from a generally positive tone around the US equity futures and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stands tall near its highest level since early November amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and caps the upside for the AUD/USD pair. 

Data released from the US last week did little to ease concerns about still-sticky inflation and reinforced market expectations that the Fed will delay cutting interest rates this year. Adding to this, comments by a slew of influential FOMC members forced investors to push back their expectations for the first rate cut to September from June. The outlook keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated near the YTD peak touched last week, which, along with persistent geopolitical tensions, should underpin the safe-haven Greenback. This, in turn, warrants some caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has bottomed out in the near term. 

Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to the US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with Fedspeak and geopolitical developments, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair ahead of the Chinese macro data dump during the Asian session on Tuesday. Investors this week will also take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance and the release of Australian employment details on Thursday.

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6474
Today Daily Change 0.0010
Today Daily Change % 0.15
Today daily open 0.6464
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6544
Daily SMA50 0.6543
Daily SMA100 0.6602
Daily SMA200 0.6543
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6544
Previous Daily Low 0.6456
Previous Weekly High 0.6644
Previous Weekly Low 0.6456
Previous Monthly High 0.6667
Previous Monthly Low 0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6489
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.651
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6432
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.64
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6345
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6519
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6575
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6607

 

 

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