Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 03-02-2017.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The NMI registered 56.5 percent which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.6. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 60.3 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 60.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 90th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in January.

The New Orders Index registered 58.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted reading of 60.7 percent in December. The Employment Index increased 2 percentage points in January to 54.7 percent from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.7 percent. The Prices Index increased 2.9 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.1 percent to 59 percent; indicating prices increased for the 10th consecutive month, at a faster rate in January".

The seasonally adjusted final Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index rebounded to 55.6 in January, up from December's three-month low of 53.9. Moreover, the latest reading was comfortably above the average for Q4 2016 (54.4) and signalled the fastest rate of business activity growth since November 2015.

Higher levels of business activity were mainly linked to improved sales growth and a more supportive economic backdrop. January's survey data revealed a robust and accelerated increase in new work received by service sector companies. The rate of expansion was the fastest since July 2015. Anecdotal evidence linked the rise to greater levels of business and consumer spending at the start of 2017.

EUR/USD 1.0500 (EUR 1.41bln) 1.0525 (313m) 1.0650 (754m)

USD/JPY 113.30-40 (USD 959m)

GBP/USD 1.2500 (GBP 370m)

EUR/GBP 0.8515 (EUR 526m)

AUD/USD 0.7575-85 (AUD 365m)

AUD/NZD 1.0450 (AUD 890m)

AUD/JPY 85.00 (AUD 491m)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 7.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent, were little changed in January.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in January. In manufacturing, the workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, while overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.6 hours for the sixth consecutive month.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $26.00, following a 6-cent increase in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.84.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0830 1.0850-55 1.0885 1.0900

Bids: 1.0780 1.0760 1.0730 1.0700 1.0680 1.0655-60

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2560 1.2580 1.2600 1.2620 1.2650 1.2680 1.2700-05

Bids: 1.2520 1.2500 1.2485 1.2450 1.2430 1.2400

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8600 0.8620 0.8635 0.8650

Bids: 0.8550-60 0.8530 0.8500 0.8475-80 0.8450

EUR/JPY

Offers: 121.80-85 122.00 1.2230 122.60 122.80 123.00

Bids: 121.25-30 121.00 120.80 120.50 120.00

USD/JPY

Offers: 113.20 113.50 113.80 114.00 114.30 114.50

Bids: 112.80 112.45-50 112.20-25 112.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7685 0.7700 0.7730 0.7750 0.7780 0.7800

Bids: 0.7630 0.7600 0.7580 0.7550 0.7520 0.7500

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

"We look for nonfarm payroll job growth of 160,000 in January, about unchanged from 156,000 in the prior month and the 3-month moving average of 165,000. There have been some discussions in the news about a hiring freeze of federal workers, but this should have only a very minimal impact on the jobs report, as the average monthly gain in federal jobs over the past year was 3,000 and the freeze only went into effect January 22. The unemployment rate is likely to hold at 4.7%, which assumes little change in the labor force participation rate. However, there is certainly scope for changes in the labor force.

Given that the unemployment rate is already at or below most measures of full employment, there is a great deal of attention placed on the trend going forward. A further decline in the unemployment rate-even if prompted by a drop in the labor force participation rate-would strengthen the case for the Fed to hike rates, putting upward pressure on our forecast of 1 hike for this year".

"We expect a January non-farm payrolls print of 200k (consensus +175k, last +156k). We also expect the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth to 4.6% − which would mark a return to the cycle low - in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.8% year over year reflecting firming wage growth and state-level minimum wage hikes".

In December 2016 compared with November 2016, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.8% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November the retail trade volume decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU28. In December 2016 compared with December 2015 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU28. The average retail trade for the year 2016, compared with 2015, rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 2.8% in the EU28.

The eurozone economy made a strong start to 2017, with output growth maintained at December's five-and-a-half year high and job creation accelerating to a near-nine year record. The final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posted 54.4 in January, unchanged from December and a tick above the earlier flash estimate of 54.3. The headline index has signalled expansion in each of the past 43 months.

At 53.4 in January, the final seasonally adjusted Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index pointed to a solid expansion of output during January. That said, the latest figure was down from 54.3 in December and below the average over 2016 as a whole (54.1). Surveyed firms linked greater activity to new business gains, although there were also reports of lower demand in some cases.

The Spanish service sector remained in growth territory at the start of 2017 amid a sharper expansion of new business. Business activity and employment rose solidly again while expectations regarding the 12-month outlook were the highest since last April. Companies recorded a steeper increase in input costs, but the rate of inflation of output prices remained marginal.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted at 54.2 in January, down from 55.0 in the previous month but still signalling a solid monthly increase in activity

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0884 (4014)

$1.0840 (3059)

$1.0812 (2482)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0757

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0695 (1761)

$1.0638 (2892)

$1.0604 (2617)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 66172 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (4014);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 76719 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5258);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 2

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2805 (2985)

$1.2708 (2702)

$1.2612 (1802)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2522

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2391 (1877)

$1.2294 (3284)

$1.2196 (1327)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 29400 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3305);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 33407 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2300 (3284);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Today the chairman of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said in a speech in Parliament that he intends to continue powerful monetary easing and to achieve the inflation target of 2% as soon as possible. Also he said that monetary policy is not a means of financing the budget.

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy - posted 51.0 in January to signal a further improvement in the health of the sector. However, the reading was down from December's 47-month record of 51.9, and was consistent with only a marginal rate of improvement.

Manufacturers reported a further rise in client demand during January, as highlighted by a sustained increase in new orders. That said, the rate of expansion slowed since December's recent peak and was moderate overall. This was despite a renewed upturn in new export business, which increased at a solid pace that was the fastest since September 2014.