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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 05-07-2012.
The euro tumbled to the lowest level in more than a month versus the dollar after the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to a record 0.75 percent and reduced its deposit rate to zero for the first time. The euro tumbled against the dollar as Draghi said some “downside risks to the euro-area economic outlook have materialized.”
The bank refrained from announcing any additional steps to cap debt yields in Spain and Italy. Spain’s bonds slid today after borrowing costs rose as it sold 3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) of debt, adding to concern Europe has yet to resolve its debt crisis. The yield on the nation’s 10-year debt rose as much as 43 basis points, or 0.43 percentage point, to 6.84 percent, the highest since June 29.
Both South Pacific currencies gained briefly after China cut its key interest rate for the second time in a month and the BOE raised its asset-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) to 375 billion pounds.
The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. currency against those of six trade partners, climbed as much as 1.4 percent, the biggest intraday jump since Nov. 9, to 82.950 after U.S. employment reports. It later traded at 82.795, up 1.2 percent.
ADP Employer Services, based in Roseland, New Jersey, said U.S. companies added 176,000 workers in June, exceeding a forecast survey for a 100,000 advance. Applications for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week to 374,000, the fewest since mid-May, Labor Department data showed today. The Labor Department will report tomorrow that U.S. payrolls added 953,000 jobs in June, the third straight month below 100,000.
Canada’s dollar strengthened to a two-year high against Europe’s shared currency. It touched $1.2532 per euro, the strongest level since June 2010, before trading at C$1.2555, up 1.1 percent. The loonie, as the Canadian currency is nicknamed, was little changed versus the U.S. dollar at C$1.0129.
- ECB Plans To Make Full Use Of Becoming Bank Supervisor
- New ECB Tasks Will Imply More Democratic Accountability
- We Stand Ready To Raise Standards Of Democratic Accountability
- New Tasks In Supervisory Area Should Be Rigorously Separated From Monetary Policy
- ECB Should Have No Contamination From Banking Supervision Task
- ECB Will Work With National Supervisors
- ECB Should Be Placed To Carry Out Banking Supervision Without Risk To Reputation
- EU Council Decision On Unified Banking Supervision Is Important Step
- Banks Lending To Real Economy Generates Collateral Vs ECB Funds
- ECB Must Make Sure It Doesn't Engage In Monetary Financing
- Idea of ECB Channelling Funds Via Banks To Specific Category Of Firms, Households Is Wrong
- Some Price Falls Are Part Of "Good" Rebalancing In EMU
- Deflation Has To Be Generalized Across Product Groups, Countries
- Deflation Is A Protracted, Generalized Drop In Price Level
- Growth Risks Relate To Potential Rise In Energy Prices
- Inflation Likely To Decline Further In Course of 2012
- ECB Still Expects Inflation To Fall Below 2% In Early 2013
- Underlying Price Pressures To Remain Moderate Amid Modest Growth
Data
01:30 Australia Trade Balance May -0.20 -0.51 -0.285
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index June +0.5% -0.3% +1.0%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June -0.1% -0.8% -0.5%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May -1.4% +0.2% +0.6%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) May -3.4% -6.0% -5.4%
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 1.00% 0.75% 0.75%
12:15 U.S.DP Employment Report June 133 101 176
During the European session, the euro traded cautiously to the ECB's decision regarding interest rates. After application of the reduction rate to the level of 0.75% euro fell sharply, despite the fact that this decision, many analysts predicted. After this news demand for the dollar has risen sharply, which caused its purchase in huge quantities. Now the dollar is growing relative to other major currencies. Pound during the session rose sharply after the announcement of the Bank of England decision on interest rates, which remained the same. Also on the growth of the pound has affected the bank's accompanying statement, which caused an unprecedented enthusiasm among market participants. But the growth did not last long, because after the announcement of the ECB to lower interest rates the dollar rose, causing a depreciation of the pound. Significant growth is also now shown commodity exchange, which was caused by a statement of the People's Bank of China to lower rates for loans and deposits. This news caused a great interest in buying these currencies. In this regard, the Australian and New Zealand dollar reached its maximum value, updating the previous day's highs. The Canadian dollar also reacted positively to the news and declined to levels nearly two month low.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair was trading with a slight decline, but fell sharply after the decision of the ECB and is now trading near the 1.2410 level
GBP / USD: a pair of rose sharply at later returned to their previous levels and is now trading near the minimum values of the session
USD / JPY: during the session, the pair dropped by then abruptly increased and is now near the maximum values of the previous day.
At 12:30 GMT the euro area will be press conference of the ECB. At the same time there are data on initial applications for unemployment benefits. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will be published by PMI in service in June. Finish the day at 15:00 GMT U.S. data on the change oil according to the Department of Energy.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2650, $1.2625/30, $1.2600/10, $1.2580/81, $1.2550
Bids $1.2480, $1.2450, $1.2400
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0320 Strong offers, $1.0290/00
Bids $1.0245/40, $1.0235/30, $1.0200, $1.0150
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.00, Y100.85/90, Y100.50, Y100.00
Bids Y99.50, Y99.00, Y98.70/60, Y98.50, Y98.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080/90, stg0.8050
Bids stg0.8000, stg0.7965/60
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5700, $1.5650, $1.5620/25
Bids $1.5560/50, $1.5450
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.50, Y80.25, Y80.00
Bids Y79.50, Y79.00
Resistance 3: Y80.90 (50.0% FIBO Y84,20-Y77,60)
Resistance 2: Y80.60 (MA (100) for D1, May and June high)
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (session high)
Current price: Y79.71
Support 1: Y79.30 (July 2 low)
Support 2: Y79.15 (June 29 low)
Support 3: Y78.80 (June 20 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (area of peaks 4-5 and 28 June)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (88,2% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, June 26 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9630 (76,4% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, June 25 high)
Current price: Chf0.9609
Support 1: Chf0.9560/65 (July 2-3 high)
Support 2: Chf0.9510 (July 3 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9460 (June 29 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5720 (July 2 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5650/60 (MA (100) for H1, June 26 high and July 3 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5620/30 (MA (200) for H1, 38,2% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Current Price: $ 1.5574
Support 1: $ 1.5540 (76,4% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Support 2: $ 1.5515 (88,2% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Support 3: $ 1.5480/70 (June 14-15 and 28 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2695 (June 29 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2625 (23,6% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690, July 3 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2550/60 (50% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690, July 3 low)
Current Price: $ 1.2508
Support 1: $ 1.2475 (76,4% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 2: $ 1.2440 (88,2% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690, support line from 06/01/12 and 06/28/12)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (June 28 low)
EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2440, $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2600, $1.2620, $1.2700, $1.2715
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.50, Y80.55, Y82.00
GBP/USD $1.5700
AUD/USD $1.0015, $1.0200, $1.0345
AUD/CAD C$1.0375
E1.239bln of 4.00% July 2015 Bono; cover 2.28 vs 3.18 previous
E1.015bln of 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; cover 2.56 vs 2.56 previous
E747mln of 5.85% Jan 2022 Obligacion; cover 3.18 vs 3.29 previous
01:30 Australia Trade Balance May -0.20 -0.51 -0.285
The euro remained lower against the yen following a decline yesterday before German factory data that may add to signs Europe’s debt crisis is damping growth. Factory orders in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, probably declined 6 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey before today’s figure. Orders fell 3.8 percent in April.
The European Central Bank will probably reduce borrowing costs at a policy meeting today to stimulate the euro-area’s flagging economy, according to a Bloomberg News poll. The ECB is likely to lower its main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point from a record low of 1 percent, a separate Bloomberg poll of economists shows.
Spain is scheduled to auction 3-, 4- and 10-year bonds today. The nation’s benchmark 10-year yield jumped 16 basis points yesterday, the most since June 26, to 6.41 percent. That compared with a euro-era high of 7.29 percent reached June 18.
The pound maintained a three-day slide on speculation the Bank of England will extend its so-called quantitative easing program today. The central bank will probably raise its target for bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) to 375 billion pounds, according to 30 of 41 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The yen touched the lowest in more than a week versus the dollar before erasing losses as Asian shares declined. The Bank of Japan will continue powerful monetary easing, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said today to the central bank’s regional branch managers in Tokyo. Nervousness is seen in global financial markets and there’s uncertainty in the worldwide economy, he said.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair receded from yesterday's low.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in range $1.5580-$1.5600.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair showed a new week's high, but declined later .
The focus for Thursday is clearly on the monetary police decision due from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Ahead of then, data is limited with German manufacturing orders at 1000GMT expected to come in at 0.2% m/m, -5.6% y/y. The Bank of England is up first with it's policy decision due at 1100GMT. The near consensus view is that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will expand quantitative easing at this month's meeting - the debate is all about by how much. The ECB decision is then due, at 1145GMT. MNI sent an ECB sources story earlier this week in which senior Eurozone central bankers told MNI that the surprisingly far-reaching Summit decisions by EU leaders have cleared the way for the ECB to cut interest rates, though a definitive decision by the Governing Council has not yet been taken.
Yesterday the euro fell against the dollar and the yen after growth, in anticipation of tomorrow's auction of Spanish bond and the meeting of the European Central Bank. Reduction was also caused by the publication of economic data for the EU, which showed weak growth. Dollar during the session showed a stable and steady growth, as many market participants are waiting for report on U.S. employment, which should surprise the good data. Positively to the dollar also affected by the representative of the ECB Knothe, who discussed the program of purchases of bonds.
The pound fell sharply after disappointing data on the PMI index in the services sector, which until eight months minimum.
Also during the session showed a significant reduction in the Swiss franc, which is against the backdrop of economic data from the EU renewed the maximum of the previous day.
Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high )
Resistance 2: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high )
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (session high Jul 5)
Current price: Y79.76
Support 1: Y79.60 (Jul 3 low)
Support 2: Y79.80 (Jul 2 low)
Support 3: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (Jun 28 high )
Resistance 2: Chf0.9625 (76.4% FIBO Chf 0.9460-Chf0.9680)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9605 (Jul 4 high )
Current price: Chf0.9590
Support 1: Chf0.9565 (Jul 3 high )
Support 2: Chf0.9510 (Jul 3 low )
Support 3: Chf0.9480 (lJul 2 ow )
Resistance 3: $ 1.5720 (Jul 2 high )
Resistance 2: $ 1.5680 (high of the European session on Jul 4)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5610 (high of the American session on Jul 4)
Current Price: $ 1.5592
Support 1: $ 1.5575 ( Jul 4 low)
Support 2: $ 1.5540 (76.4% FIBO $ 1.5720-$ 1.5485)
Support 3: $ 1.5485 (Jun 28 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2625 (Jul 3 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2600 (high of the European session on Jul 4)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2545 (high of the U.S. session on Jul 4)
Current Price: $ 1.2527
Support 1: $ 1.2505 (Jul 4 low )
Support 2: $ 1.2475 (76.4% FIBO $ 1.2695-$ 1.2407)
Support 3: $ 1.2405 (Jun 28 low )
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
GBP/USD $1,5594 -0,59%
USD/CHF Chf0,9587 +0,65%
USD/JPY Y79,86 +0,05%
EUR/JPY Y100,05 -0,56%
GBP/JPY Y124,54 -0,52%
AUD/USD $1,0750 +4,37%
NZD/USD $0,8039 +0,04%
USD/CAD C$1,0128 +0,06%
01:30 Australia Trade Balance May -0.20 -0.51 -0.285
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index June +0.5% -0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June -0.1% -0.8%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May -1.9% +0.2%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) May -3.8% -6.0%
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 1.00% 0.75%
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report June 133 101
12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 386 385
14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 53.7 53.1
15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -0.1
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