Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 06-12-2018.

This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 62.5 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.5 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 1.3 percentage points in November to 58.4 percent from the October reading of 59.7 percent.

Canada's exports were down 1.2% in October, principally on lower exports of crude oil. Imports were down 0.6%, mainly due to fewer imports of passenger cars and light trucks. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from $891 million in September to $1.2 billion in October.

In real (or in volume) terms, exports showed an opposite movement (+1.2%) compared with nominal export values in October, as lower energy product prices led to a 2.3% decrease in total export prices. Meanwhile, real imports were essentially unchanged in October.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

From the third quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.7-percent increase in output and a 2.3-percent increase in hours worked.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 223,250 to 223,750.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in October, up $0.9 billion from $54.6 billion in September, revised.

October exports were $211.0 billion, $0.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $266.5 billion, $0.6 billion more than September imports.

The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $78.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $22.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $51.3 billion, or 11.4 percent, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $149.3 billion or 7.7 percent. Imports increased $200.6 billion or 8.4 percent.

Imports of goods increased $0.5 billion to $219.6 billion in October.

Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.3 billion.

“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. ”Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked. This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labor markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.”

• No Constraints on Budget

• Ideally Cut Will Be to 3Q 2019

• Trump Is Right to Care About 20% of Market

• We Are Ready to Deal With Consequnces Either Way

• Would Have Preferred if Qatar Stayed in OPEC

• Qatar Would Have Been Better off Remaining a Member

• We Prefer November as a Baseline for a Cut, But Accept October

• Saudi Exports 8.3M B/D

• Our Budget Is Very Comfortable

• All Options Are on the Table

• Important to Get Non-OPEC Producers on Board

• Not Everyone Wants to Contribute to Cut

• 1M B/D Cut Will Be Sufficient to Balance Market

• I Don't Need Permission From Any Foreign Country to Cut

• Preference Is No Exemption to Any Member Countries

• Still Considering a Number of Options for Cuts

• It Is The Level Of Rates That Matter; 'They Can Still Move Lower'

• RBA Still Expects Next Rate Move to Be up

• RBA Could Also Invoke QE in a Downturn

• Talking To Colleagues About How Parliament Could Have Role In N.Ireland Backstop Details

• Front Loading Amongst Exporters Are Not The Main Drivers For China’s Strong Trade Performance

• Labor Markets Tightened Further Across Broad Range of Occupations

• Prices Rose at Modest Pace in Most Districts

• Most Districts Said Wage Growth Tended to Higher Side of Modest to Moderate Pace

• Several Districts Noted Falling Oil Prices, Rising Freight Costs

• House Prices Continued to Rise in Majority of Markets

Balance on goods and services:

• In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,709m in october 2018, an increase of $182m on the surplus in september 2018.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,316m in october 2018, a decrease of $624m on the surplus in september 2018.

Credits (exports of goods and services):

• In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $493m (1%) to $38,045m. Non-rural goods rose $1,019m (4%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $12m (63%). Non-monetary gold fell $355m (24%) and rural goods fell $277m (7%). Services credits rose $93m (1%).

• The trend estimate rose 0.2% in October 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in September 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in August 2018.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in October 2018. This follows a 0.1% rise in September 2018, and a rise of 0.3% in August 2018.

• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in October 2018 compared with October 2017.

• The following industries rose in trend terms in October 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2%). Household goods retailing (-0.1%), and Department Stores (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.

• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in October 2018: Victoria (0.4%), Queensland (0.5%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). Western Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0%). New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Northern Territory (-0.8%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in October 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.3% on the previous month. For September 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 0.1% compared with August 2018 (primary +0.3%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had increased in October 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted also 0.3% on the previous month.

Domestic orders decreased by 3.2% and foreign orders increased by 2.9% in October 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 7.3%, new orders from other countries increased 0.3% compared to September 2018.

In October 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders rise by 0.8% compared with September 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 0.4% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 1.7% was recorded.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1454 (3835)

$1.1411 (3393)

$1.1379 (3349)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1337

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1290 (3565)

$1.1247 (4530)

$1.1199 (5767)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 125527 contracts (according to data from December, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5767);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2863 (1362)

$1.2823 (1794)

$1.2768 (816)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2710

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2674 (3065)

$1.2637 (1998)

$1.2593 (1483)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 59373 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4702);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47290 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3261);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.79 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.