Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 08-01-2019.

The number of job openings fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged down to 5.7 million, quits edged down to 3.4 million, and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from $851 million in October to $2.1 billion in November.

Total exports fell 2.9% to $48.3 billion in November, a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Export volumes were down 1.8% while prices fell 1.1%. Exports were down in 8 of 11 sections in November and, as was the case in October, energy products contributed the most to the decline. Exports excluding energy products decreased 1.4%.

Following a 6.7% decline in October, exports of energy products fell 9.2% to $8.4 billion in November. Crude oil exports (-17.7%) led the decrease, driven by a 13.9% drop in prices, which were down for a third consecutive month. Crude oil export volumes were down 4.4% in November. Lower exports of crude oil were partially offset by higher exports of coal to South Korea, China and Viet Nam.

The eurozone business climate index fell to 0.82 in December, from 1.04 in November, compared with a WSJ consensus forecast of 0.99, while the economic sentiment index fell to 107.3 from 109.5, below the consensus for a smaller drop to 108.5. The euro falls to 1.1436 from 1.1452 beforehand, nearing the lowest level of the day. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1432 after German industrial production fell 1.9% in December, its sharpest drop since the summer of 2015. - via WSJ

• Saudis to Make New Export Cuts, Hoping for $80 Oil

• Plan Aggressive Export Cuts in Effort to Lift Oil Prices

• To Trim Exports in Effort to Lift Crude Prices

• Prices in the three months to December were 1.3% higher than in the same three months a year earlier – up from the 0.3% annual growth rate recorded in November

• House prices in the latest quarter (October-December) were 0.4% lower than in the preceding three months (July - September)

• On a monthly basis, house prices increased by 2.2% in December, following a 1.2% fall in November • The average house price is now £229,729

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “In December the average cost of a home was £229,729 and annual house price growth stood at 1.3%. A stronger monthly growth figure for December reversed a weak November figure, monthly fluctuations are common, leaving the annual figure very firmly in the range of 0-3% as we forecast at the start of the year. In 2019, we’re expecting continued stability in house prices with between 2% and 4% price inflation. This is slightly stronger than 2018, but still fairly subdued by modern comparison. However, this expectation will clearly be dependent on the Brexit outcome, with risks to both sides of our forecast”.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1585 (414)

$1.1574 (386)

$1.1565 (544)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1438

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1397 (2283)

$1.1361 (2657)

$1.1322 (8552)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 64041 contracts (according to data from January, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (8552);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2908 (261)

$1.2894 (116)

$1.2872 (35)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2763

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2701 (430)

$1.2661 (319)

$1.2613 (635)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 18720 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1716);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 21171 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Views Neutral Interest Rate Between 2.5% and 3.25%

• There Are Clouds Out There; Business Owners Uncertain About 3 to 6 Months Out

• If Government Shutdown Lingers, It Will Become Material for U.S. Economy

• If Tariff Levels Rise Further, Consumers Will Start to See Price Increases in Way They Haven't Yet

• Expects Economic Growth to Slow in 2019, But Not a Recession

• In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,259m in November 2018, a decrease of $7m on the surplus in October 2018.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2018, a decrease of $88m on the surplus in October 2018.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $532m (1%) to $38,445m. Non-monetary gold rose $681m (60%). Non-rural goods fell $173m (1%) and rural goods fell $34m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $37m. Services credits rose $57m (1%).

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.2% in nominal terms in November 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.5% in November 2018 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 0.2%.

In November 2018, production in industry was down by 1.9% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The revised figure shows a decrease of 0.8% (primary -0.5%) from October 2018.

In November 2018, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.8%. Within industry, the production of capital goods decreased by 1.8% and the production of intermediate goods by 1.0%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease of 4.1%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 3.1% in November 2018 and the production in construction decreased by 1.7%.