After the decline of the euro against the dollar in the first half of the day, the rate rose sharply, updating the maximum value of the day. Most likely this increase was caused by rumors that the People's Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirements for commercial banks. Such a move the authorities in China is quite logical, given the recent weak data on industrial production and inflation, as well as the deteriorating situation on international markets.
The yen rose against most major currencies as investors sought refuge after data showed that China's exports grew by 1% in July, compared with growth of 11.3% in June, prompting concern that global economic growth slows. Economists forecast that export growth of 8%.
The Australian dollar fell against most currencies on fears of a slowdown in China, which is an important trading partner for Australia. But despite this, during the session, the exchange rate could be restored almost to the level of opening day.
During the course of the day more than half of the Canadian dollar declined against the dollar, thus showing the first drop in six days. It is learned that the number of employed fell by 30,400 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose to 7.3%. But at the end of the session, the pair could be strengthened by upgrading with yesterday's low.
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7875
AUD/USD $1.0550
Data:
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) July -0.2% +0.4% +0.4%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) July +2.0% +1.7% +1.9%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -1.9% +0.4% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.2% +1.3% +1.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) July -2.3% -1.5% -2.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.4% +0.1% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) July +2.3% +2.0% +1.3%
The euro weakened as Germany’s economy ministry said the outlook for faster growth was fading amid the currency-bloc’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The prospect of global economic recovery is “fragile,” Germany’s economy ministry said in its report for August. The nation’s economy “moderately” expanded in the second-quarter compared with the first-quarter, it said.
The greenback strengthened as China’s export growth collapsed, boosting demand for the currencies as havens.
China’s exports rose 1% in July from a year earlier, following an 11.3% increase in June, the customs bureau said in Beijing. That compared with the median estimate of economists for an 8% gain.
EUR/USD: during European session, the pair remained under pressure and fell to $1.2260 area.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased, showing low at $ 1.5576. Later the pair restored to $1.5600 area.
USD/JPY: during European session, the pair approached the support in Y78, 35 area.
US data for Friday starts at 1230GMT with the July Import / Export Price Index. Later data sees the 1900GMT release of the Treasury Budget Statement where the Treasury is expected to post a $103.0 billion budget gap in July, compared with the $129.4 billion gap in July 2011.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2385, $1.2365, $1.2345/50, $1.2320/25, $1.2310
Bids $1.2260/40, $1.2210/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5660/65, $1.5630/35, $1.5620, $1.5610
Bids $1.5560, $1.5535/30
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635, $1.0620, $1.0610/15, $1.0600, $1.0575/80, $1.0555/60
Bids $1.0480/75, $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0370/65
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.25/30, Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.70
Bids Y78.30/25, Y78.20/10, Y78.00, Y77.90
EUR/JPY
Offers Y97.80, Y97.60, Y97.50, Y96.90/00
Bids Y96.00, Y95.80, Y95.50, Y95.25/20, Y95.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7965/70, stg0.7920
Bids stg0.7850, stg0.7835/30, stg0.7810/00
EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2400
USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7875
AUD/USD $1.0550
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 31.7 35.1 25.1
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) June -3.4% -0.1% +0.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) June +6.0% -2.0% -1.5%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August
The euro headed for its first five- day drop in three weeks before data forecast to show the region’s economy shrank as its debt crisis remained unresolved. Gross domestic product in the euro area probably contracted 0.2 percent in the three months through June after being unchanged in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The European Union’s statistics office will report the figure on Aug. 14. French industrial production may have risen 0.1 percent in June from May, when it dropped 1.9 percent, a separate survey of economists showed before the data are released today.
Economists polled by the ECB reduced their 2013 growth projection to 0.6 percent from 1 percent, according to the central bank’s monthly bulletin released yesterday. The region’s economy is likely to shrink 0.3 percent this year. Growth has slowed as a sovereign-debt crisis prompted five of the trading bloc’s 17 states to seek international bailouts.
The dollar and yen rose against their major counterparts as signs of slowing growth in China sent shares lower, boosting demand for refuge currencies. China’s overseas sales increased 1 percent in July from a year earlier, following an 11.3 percent increase in June, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing. That compared with the median estimate of economists for an 8 percent gain.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.2300.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5615 (MA (200) H1).
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range Y78.45-Y78.65.
European data sees the final German HICP data for July. France data at 0645GMT sees industrial output for June, which is expected to come in at -0.1% m/m, -1.8% y/y. The IEA monthly oil market report is due at 0800GMT. UK data at 0830GMT includes PPI as well as Q2
Construction Output data. US data for Friday starts at 1230GMT with the July Import / Export Price Index. Later data sees the 1900GMT release of the Treasury Budget Statement where the Treasury is expected to post a $103.0 billion budget gap in July, compared with the $129.4 billion gap in July 2011. US C&I loans data rounds things off, at 2015GMT.
During the day, the dollar rose against the euro and yen, as it was reported that the central banks of the stimulus package set aside for the future. Also, it became known, the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level in more than a month, while attracting investors.
The euro fell against most major currencies as the European Central Bank economists have cut growth forecast for the region in 2013 to 0.6% from 1%.
Pound throughout the day showed a stable decline, as the published data showed that the trade surplus in June fell more than expected.
The yen traded erratically against the dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from increasing incentives. Bank of Japan kept its fund asset purchases of $ 45 trillion yen and lending funds to 25 trillion yen bag are his work. But the Japanese yen lost won against the dollar position after data showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected, as falling oil prices helped reduce the import of the state. The deficit was reduced by 11% in June to $ 42.9 billion, which was the lowest figure since December 2010.
New Zealand dollar fell after a report showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.8%, which is a two-year maximum. In the first quarter, the figure was 6.7%.
The Australian dollar strengthened against most of the 16 major currencies. As shown by the data, the number of people employed in the country increased by 14,000 in July, compared with analysts' expectations at 10,000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% compared with the revised figure in June at 5.3%.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2304 -0,50%
GBP/USD $1,5634 -0,15%
USD/CHF Chf0,9795 +0,82%
USD/JPY Y78,57 +0,18%
EUR/JPY Y96,68 -0,30%
GBP/JPY Y122,83 +0,04%
AUD/USD $1,0573 +0,02%
NZD/USD $0,8117 -0,46%
USD/CAD C$0,9913 -0,34%
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 31.7 35.1
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) June -3.4% -0.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) June +6.0% -2.0%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m July -0.2% +0.4%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) July +2.0% +1.7%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -1.9% +0.4%
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -3.5% -1.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.2% +1.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July -2.3% -1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July -0.4% +0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July +2.3% +2.0%
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate July 7.2% 7.3%
12:30 Canada Employment July +7.3 +10.2
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index July -2.7% +0.1%
18:00 U.S. Federal budget July -59.7 -103.0
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