Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-04-2012.

The euro dropped against most of its major counterparts amid bets the European Central Bank won’t restart its government bond-purchase program even as Spanish credit-default swaps rose to a record. The cost of insuring against a Spanish government default rose to a record 498 basis points, according to CMA prices. A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting 10 million euros ($13.1 million) of debt for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year. Swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if a borrower fails to adhere to its debt agreements. Europe’s shared currency headed for a second weekly decline against the yen and dollar after Klaas Knot, a member of the ECB governing council, said he didn’t see a “good reason” to buy Spanish securities. Euro slid after a report showed China’s economy expanded less than analysts forecast, adding to bets global growth is slowing.

The Dollar Index rose as U.S. consumer confidence cooled, damping risk appetite. Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for April unexpectedly fell to 75.7.

The British pound fell against the dollar after a report showed that producer prices in Britain rose again in March, confirming the stability of the inflationary pressures in the economy. Prices of output rose 0.6% m / m, exceeding the average forecast of 0.5%.Prices rose at the entrance of 1.9%, exceeding the forecast of 1.4%. Producer prices rose the third consecutive month, registering a growth of 6 out of 10 categories. The highest growth was recorded for prices of petrol, tobacco and alcohol. In annual terms, producer prices have increased output by 3.6% in March against 4.1% in February.

• 
  

  • Вefore the crisis, private companies have been too much borrowing

  • Before the crisis, private companies are too dependent on short-term financing

  • Companies are not adequately monitored the risk before the crisis

  • Before the crisis, regulators have paid too little attention to the system as a whole

  • Gaps in regulation led to the fact that the system became unstable

  • Lending by the Fed helped to stabilize the system

  • TARP program and the FDIC to resolve the crisis contributed to the

  • Stress tests in 2009 helped restore confidence in banks

  • The Fed as a whole was struggling with the crisis by "classical instruments"

EUR/USD $1.3105, $1.3110, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y80.15, Y80.50, Y82.35, Y82.40

EUR/GBP stg0.8225

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075

GBP/USD $1.5950

USD/CHF Chf0.9160

AUD/USD $1.0380, $1.0400

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2520

Data:

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) March +0.7% +0.3% +0.4%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) March +2.3% +2.1% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) March +2.1% +1.3% +1.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) March +7.3% +4.8% +5.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) March +0.6% +0.5% +0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) March +4.1% +3.5% +3.6%

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3280, $1.3240/50, $1.3220
Bids $1.3135/25, $1.3115/00, $1.3095/90, $1.3080, $1.3060/50

USD/JPY
Offers Y82.00, Y81.85/90, Y81.60/65, Y81.45/50, Y81.25
Bids Y80.75, Y80.50, Y80.30/25, Y80.10/00, Y79.80/75

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0545/50, $1.0530/35, $1.0490/00, $1.0460/65, $1.0450/55, $1.0415/20
Bids $1.0355/50, $1.0325/20, $1.0305/00, $1.0255/45, $1.0225, $1.0200

EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.45/50, Y107.15/20, Y106.95/00
Bids Y106.30/25, Y106.00, Y105.50/40, Y105.00, Y104.75/70

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8320/25, stg0.8300, stg0.8275/80
Bids stg0.8250/40, stg0.8225/20, stg0.8200, stg0.8180/75

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.90 (Apr 10 high, МА (200) for Н1, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Resistance 1: Y81.20 (session high)
Current price: Y80.99
Support 1: Y80.60 (Apr 11 low, low of March)
Support 1: Y80.20 (Feb 29 low, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Support 3: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Mar 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9210/20 (area of Apr 5, 9-10 highs)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9150/60 (resistance line from Apr 10, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9127
Support 1: Chf0.9090 (Apr 12 low, Mar 29 high, 61,8 %% FIBO Chf0,9000-Chf0,9220)
Support 2: Chf0.9000 (Apr 2-3 lows)
Support 3: Chf0.8930 (Feb 24 and 29 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.6060 (Apr 2 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.6020 (the top border of up channel from Apr 10)
Resistance 1 : $1.5980 (Apr 12 high)
Current price: $1.5955
Support 1 : $1.5930 (the bottom border of up channel from Apr 10)
Support 2 : $1.5910/00 (session low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3390 (high of March)
Resistance 2 : $1.3250 (61,8 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Resistance 1 : $1.3210/20 (area of Apr 12 high, МА (200) for Н4, 50,0 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Current price: $1.3170
Support 1 : $1.3140 (support line from Apr 10, МА (200) for Н1, session low)
Support 2 : $1.3100 (support line from Apr 9, Apr 12 low)
Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 5 and 9 lows)

EUR/USD $1.3105, $1.3110, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y80.15, Y80.50, Y82.35, Y82.40

EUR/GBP stg0.8225

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075

GBP/USD $1.5950

USD/CHF Chf0.9160

AUD/USD $1.0380, $1.0400

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2520

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter I +8.9% +8.4% +8.1%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y March +11.4% +11.5% +11.9%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y March +14.7% +15.1% +15.2%

The yen remained lower after a two- day decline against the dollar and the euro before Japanese ministers discuss measures against deflation today amid speculation the central bank will add to monetary easing. Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Motohisa Furukawa said ministers will discuss deflation later today, after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday defeating price declines and achieving sustained growth are extremely important tasks for the central bank.

Australia’s dollar, known as the Aussie, slid against all of its 16 major counterparts after China said gross domestic product grew 8.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. That’s the slowest expansion in almost three years and compared with the 8.4 percent gain estimated by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.0392. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

The dollar was headed for a weekly loss versus the majority of its peers before U.S. data projected to show U.S. inflation slowed. U.S. consumer prices probably rose 0.3 percent last month after climbing 0.4 percent in February, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey before the Labor Department releases the figure. That would follow a report last week that showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 120,000 in March, the smallest gain in five months.

Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said yesterday that it’s “too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods, as underlined by the March labor-market release,” adding he still supports holding rates close to zero through late 2014. Speeches are scheduled today from Dudley and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair is corrected after yesterday's growth.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, receded from yesterday's highs.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y81.20.

European data starts at 0600GMT with final HICP data from Germany where the preliminary reading was 0.4% m/m, 2.3% y/y. UK data at 0830 includes the Producer Price Index and also Construction Output data. US events start at 1200GMT when New York Fed President William Dudley speaks to the Buffalo Niagara Partnership's Movers & Shakers Breakfast and will answer questions from the audience. In the afternoon he will visit the Roswell Park Cancer Institute. US data starts at 1230GMT when consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.3% in March following the energy-driven jump in February. Then, at 1700GMT, Federal Reserve Chairmman Ben Bernanke will speak to the Russell Sage Foundation and The Century Foundation on "Rethinking Finance".

Yesterday the dollar fell versus most major counterparts as data showed the most Americans since January filed for jobless benefits last week, supporting the argument that monetary policy should stay stimulative to spur growth.

The euro strengthened versus the dollar as Italy’s 10-year bonds rose for a second day, pushing yields down from an almost two-month high of 5.73 percent reached. The nation sold 4.88 euros ($6.4 billion) of securities, close to its 5 billion-euro maximum target for the sale.

The yen dropped versus major peers as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said policy makers will “pursue powerful easing.” Defeating deflation and achieving sustained growth are important tasks for the central bank, Shirakawa said in Tokyo.

The pound fell as a result of published data on the trade balance. Sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU in February, partly because of falling car exports in January increased the trade deficit. Merchandise trade deficit widened to 8.772 billion pounds in February to 7.883 billion pounds in January, far more than analysts had expected.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain, touched level $1.3200.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain on a floor of a figure, showed a new week’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded in range Y80.70-Y81.10.

European data starts at 0600GMT with final HICP data from Germany where the preliminary reading was 0.4% m/m, 2.3% y/y. UK data at 0830 includes the Producer Price Index and also Construction Output data. US events start at 1200GMT when New York Fed President William Dudley speaks to the Buffalo Niagara Partnership's Movers & Shakers Breakfast and will answer questions from the audience. In the afternoon he will visit the Roswell Park Cancer Institute. US data starts at 1230GMT when consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.3% in March following the energy-driven jump in February. Then, at 1700GMT, Federal Reserve Chairmman Ben Bernanke will speak to the Russell Sage Foundation and The Century Foundation on "Rethinking Finance".

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.85 (Apr 10 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.20 (session high)

The current price: Y80.85

Support 1: Y80.55 (Apr 11 low)

Support 2: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9220 (Apr 5 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9185 (high of the American session on Apr 11)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9145 (Apr 10 low)

The current price: Chf0.9125

Support 1: Chf0.9090 (Apr 12 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 2-3 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6090 (Nov 11-14 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6045 (Apr 3 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5985 (Apr 12 high)

The current price: $1.5940

Support 1 : $1.5930 (low of the American session on Apr 12)

Support 2 : $1.5885 (low of the American session on Apr 11)

Support 3 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3300 (psychological level)

Resistance 2 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3210 (Apr 12 high)

The current price: $1.3168

Support 1 : $1.3155 (Apr 11 high)

Support 2 : $1.3100 (Apr 12 low)

Support 3 : $1.3065 (Apr 11 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3186 +0,58%

GBP/USD $1,5957 +0,31%

USD/CHF Chf0,9110 -0,70%

USD/JPY Y80,86 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y106,64 +0,60%

GBP/JPY Y129,03 +0,31%

AUD/USD $1,0437 +1,28%

NZD/USD $0,8274 +1,10%

USD/CAD C$0,9945 -0,92%

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter I +8.9% +8.4%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y March +11.4% +11.5%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y March +14.7% +15.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) March +0.7% +0.3%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) March +2.3% +2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) March +2.1% +1.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) March +7.3% +4.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) March +0.6% +0.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) March +4.1% +3.5%

12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak -

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m March +0.4% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y March +2.9% +2.6%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m March +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y March +2.2% +2.2%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) April 76.2 76.5

17:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks