Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-06-2016.

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation June 3.2%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence May 5

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) April 3.8% 0.3%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) April 0.2% -3.5%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m May 0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y May -2.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May 0.4% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May -0.7% -0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May 0.9% 0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May -6.5% -5%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m May 0.1% 0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y May 1.3% 1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m May 0.1% 0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y May 0.3% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y May 1.2% 1.3%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April -0.8% 0.7%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April 0.2% 1.3%

09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I 0.3%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales May 1.3% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY May 3%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto May 0.8% 0.4%

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index May 0.3% 0.8%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories April 0.4% 0.2%

22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter I -2.61

The Conference Board (CB) released its leading economic index for the U.K. on Monday. The leading economic index (LEI) was flat in April, after a flat reading in March.

The coincident index rose 0.3% in April, after a 0.1% decline in March.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed UK's sovereign debt rating at 'AA+' on Friday. The outlook is stable.

"The UK's ratings benefit from a high-income, diversified and flexible economy. The credible macroeconomic policy framework and sterling's international reserve currency status further support the ratings," Fitch said in its statement.

The agency noted that it believed Britain's exit from the European Union (EU) would have only a moderate negative on the UK's outlook.

The agency expects the French economy to expand 1.9% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017.

The European Central Bank (ECB) purchased €17.73 billion of government and agency bonds under its quantitative-easing program last week.

The ECB bought €1.49 billion of covered bonds, and €131 million of asset-backed securities.

The central bank purchased €348 million of corporate bonds on June 08.

The ECB cut its interest rate to 0.00% from 0.05% and deposit rate to -0.4% from -0.3% at its March monetary policy meeting. The ECB also expanded its monthly purchases to €80 billion from €60 billion.

EURUSD 1.1200 (EUR 1.5bln) 1.1280 (203m) 1.1300-15 (531m)

USDJPY 106.00 (USD 280m) 106.70 (280m) 107.90 (650m)

GBPUSD 1.4300 (GBP 213m)

EURGBP 0.7760 (EUR 444m) 0.7800 (360m) 0.7900 (435m)

AUDUSD 0.7360 (AUD 249m) 0.7500 (685m)

USDCAD 1.2800 (USD 674m) 1.2850 (225m)

EURJPY 120.00 (EUR 232m) 122.00 (281m) 123.00 (410m)

Fitch Ratings has affirmed France's sovereign debt rating at 'AA' on Friday. The outlook is stable.

"France's ratings balance a wealthy and diversified economy, track record of relative macro-financial stability, strong and effective civil and social institutions with a high general government debt/GDP ratio and fiscal deficit," Fitch said in its statement.

The agency expects the French economy to expand 1.4% in 2016 and 2017.

Fitch expects France's government deficit to decline to 3.3% of GDP in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017 from 3.6% in 2015.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Japan's sovereign debt rating at 'A' on Monday. The outlook has been lowered to negative from stable.

The downgrade was driven by the delay of the scheduled consumption tax rise.

"The Outlook revision primarily reflects Fitch's decreased confidence in the Japanese authorities' commitment to fiscal consolidation," Fitch said.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y May 10.1% 10.1% 10.0%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment May 10.5% 10.5% 9.6%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y May 6.0% 5.9% 6.0%

07:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic report from the U.S.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Monday that there was no need for more stimulus measures, adding that the current stimulus measures needed more time to take effect.

"The current monetary environment requires no further easing," he said.

Weidmann noted that the ECB's quantitative easing was appropriate as inflation was low. But he pointed out that the risks and side effects of the stimulus measures would rise over time.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

Uncertainty over Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) weighed on the currency pair. According to the ORB poll for The Independent on Friday, 55% of respondents would support Britain's exit from the EU, while 45% of respondents would vote for the campaign "Remain". ORB surveyed 2,000 people.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1280 1.1300 1.1320 1.1355-60 1.1400 1.1420 1.1450

Bids 1.1230 1.1200 1.1185 1.1165 1.1150 1.1135 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4200 1.4220-25 1.4250 1.4280 1.4300 1.4320 1.4355-60 1.4385 1.4400

Bids 1.4150 1.4130-35 1.4100 1.4085 1.4065 1.4050 1.4025-30 1.4000

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7950-55 0.7980 0.8000 0.8020-25 0.8050

Bids 0.7920 0.7900 0.7885 0.7865 0.7850 0.7820 0.7800

EUR/JPY

Offers 119.75 120.00 120.30-35 120.80 121.00 121.20 121.50 122.00

Bids 119.20 119.00 118.50 118.00

USD/JPY

Offers 106.20-25 106.50 106.85 107.00 107.20 107.50 107.80 108.00 108.30 108.50

Bids 105.70-75 105.50 105.00 104.70 104.50 104.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7400 0.7420-25 0.7450 0.7485 0.7500-05 0.7520 0.7550

Bids 0.7365-70 0.7350 0.7320 0.7300 0.7285 0.7270 0.7250

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Monday that there was no need for more stimulus measures, adding that the current stimulus measures needed more time to take effect.

"The current monetary environment requires no further easing," he said.

Weidmann noted that the ECB's quantitative easing was appropriate as inflation was low. But he pointed out that the risks and side effects of the stimulus measures would rise over time.

China's Ministry of Commerce released its foreign direct investment (FDI) data on Monday. Foreign direct investment inflows in China fell to $8.89 billion in May, down 1.0% from a year earlier. It was the first fall since December 2015.

FDI climbed 3.8% year-over-year to $54.19 billion in the January-May period.

Investment in the manufacturing sector slid 3.2% the January-May period, while foreign investment in the services sector climbed 7% in the January-May period.

Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office released its quarterly survey on late Sunday evening. The business survey index (BSI) of manufacturers' sentiment dropped to -11.1 in the second quarter from -7.9 in first quarter.

The BSI for manufacturers in the third quarter of 2016 is expected to rise to 7.0.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Friday that the European Central Bank (ECB) should keep its quantitative easing over the coming two years.

"In fact, explicitly accepting that inflation could go beyond 2% over the next two years without triggering a tightening of monetary policy could make monetary policy more effective at influencing expectations, which is crucial when interest rates are at the zero lower bound," OECD said.

According to the ORB poll for The Independent on Friday, 55% of respondents would support Britain's exit from the EU, while 45% of respondents would vote for the campaign "Remain".

ORB surveyed 2,000 people.

EUR/USD 1.1200 (EUR 1.5bln) 1.1280 (203m) 1.1300-15 (531m)

USD/JPY 106.00 (USD 280m) 106.70 (280m) 107.90 (650m)

GBP/USD 1.4300 (GBP 213m)

EUR/GBP 0.7760 (EUR 444m) 0.7800 (360m) 0.7900 (435m)

AUD/USD 0.7360 (AUD 249m) 0.7500 (685m)

USD/CAD 1.2800 (USD 674m) 1.2850 (225m)

EUR/JPY 120.00 (EUR 232m) 122.00 (281m) 123.00 (410m)

The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that China's industrial production increased 6.0% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations for a 5.9% rise, after a 6.0% gain in April.

On a monthly base, the country's industrial production was up 0.45% in May, after a 0.47% rise in April.

Fixed-asset investment in China climbed 9.6% year-on-year in the January - May period, missing forecasts for a 10.5% growth, after a 10.5% rise in the January - April period.

Retail sales in China increased 10.0% year-on-year in May, missing expectations for a 10.1% gain, after a 10.1% rise in April.

On a monthly base, retail sales increased 0.76% in May, after a 0.80% gain in April.

The dollar extended its losses against the yen on Monday, falling over 1 percent to levels not seen since early May as investors bought the perceived safe-haven Japanese currency amid Brexit fears that have driven a broad rise in risk aversion.

While the Federal Reserve is seen leaving interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, its post-meeting statement will be scrutinized for signals regarding the timing of the next hike in borrowing costs. Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to expand record monetary stimulus in July rather than on June 16.

Chinese data released Monday added to evidence that the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing. Industrial production rose 6 percent from a year earlier in May, matching economists' estimates, and retail sales climbed 10 percent.

The pound dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $1.4159. It slumped 1.4 percent on Friday after an Orb/Independent newspaper poll showed 55 percent support for the "Leave" campaign, and 45 percent for "Remain." Surveys at the weekend were less stark, with an online poll by Opinium for the Observer newspaper showing 44 percent support for Britain staying in the EU and 42 percent against. Hedge funds and other large speculators are betting on sterling futures weakness by the most since June 2013, a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

The yen strengthened versus all 16 major peers. The BOJ should expand monetary stimulus as soon as this week by boosting bond purchases rather than pushing interest rates further into negative territory, Nobuyuki Nakahara, an influential adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said in an interview on Friday.

Financial markets are shut for holidays in Australia and Russia.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1230-55

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.4155-1.4230

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y105.80

Based on Reuters materials

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1441 (1984)

$1.1407 (706)

$1.1370 (71)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1250

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1187 (893)

$1.1163 (1712)

$1.1136 (2334)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 36195 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5336);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 68914 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0900 (12887);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.90 versus 1.83 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 10

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4532 (712)

$1.4438 (387)

$1.4344 (128)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4188

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4157 (452)

$1.4061 (3274)

$1.3965 (1010)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 16424 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (2216);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 33873 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4100 (3272);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 2.06 versus 2.09 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.